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中美专家:穆迪“误判”无碍中国向好发展趋势

2017-06-07 10:23:44   经济参考报

编者按:最近,国际评级机构穆迪下调了中国的主权信用评级,自Aa3下调至A1,引起业内人士的关注,对中国经济有深入研究的国内学者和对中国问题颇为关注的美国学者都有各自的看法。为此,中国财富传媒集团与彼得森国际经济研究所召开了视频对话会议,对此进行了深入的讨论。以下是中美专家对此次评级的看法。

针对穆迪日前下调中国信用评级,在5日中国财富传媒集团与彼得森国际经济研究所视频对话会议上,来自中美的学者和专家表示,尽管评级机构高估了中国债务风险,低估了中国改革成效和经济增长转型动能,但此次降级可视为中国进一步推进经济改革的契机。

评级机构穆迪5月24日将中国主权信用评级自Aa3下调至A1,将展望从“负面”调整至“稳定”,提出调降评级主要有三个理由,即中国实体经济债务规模将快速增长、相关改革措施难见成效、地方债及企业债将增加政府或有债务。可实际上中国财政收入上升、外储水平高企,经济增长随着改革进程越来越有韧性,而且不再严重依赖刺激政策。

穆迪对中国债务压力的

判断是误判

中美专家一致指出,穆迪此次评级依据不充分、忽视了财政收入、国际水平、外储持有量等许多重要因素,对中国做出了令人匪夷所思的评级调整。

交通银行首席经济学家,中国财富研究院研究员连平表示,穆迪下调中国主权信用评级的客观依据不充分。可以从五个方面分析:

第一,中国总体负债水平并不高。政府居民和非金融企业部门的债务总规模在国际上处于中游水平,比起主要的发达国家如美国、日本、加拿大、英国等,都明显要低。

第二,中国的负债主要是内债,对外的风险比较低。截至2016年末全口径下的外债总额为1.4万亿元,占中国债务总额的比重只有5.4%,占GDP的比重为13%。相对于全球主要国家,中国对外负债水平很低,并且具有大量国际收支盈余,对外风险很低。截至2017年4月,中国外汇储备规模超过3万亿美元,是全球最大外汇储备国家。截止2016年末,中国对外金融资产6.5万亿美元,对外金融负债4.7万亿美元,金融对外净盈余1.8万亿美元。

第三,中国各部门债务压力不大,负债水平大幅上升可能性较小。比如说,2013年政府部门的杠杆率是略高于50%,目前已经降到了46%。2015年以后中国开始实施地方政府的债务置换工作,迄今为止置换额度已经超过了10万亿,地方政府的债务风险正在逐渐地降低。当然,中国非金融企业的杠杆率相对高一些,这个跟中国储蓄率比较高,且以信贷为主的融资结构有比较大的关系。目前中国正在积极稳妥地推进去杠杆的工作,积极处置银行的不良资产,同时也推行了一些创新,包括市场化法治化的债转股,加大股权融资力度,强化企业特别是国有企业财务杠杆约束,企业部门的债务水平将有所下降。

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