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“穆迪下调中国评级存在误判”——中美专家热议穆迪下调中国主权信用评级

2017-06-06 22:11:20   新华网

新华社北京6月6日电 题:“穆迪下调中国评级存在误判”——中美专家热议穆迪下调中国主权信用评级

新华社记者韩洁、刘红霞

中国外汇交易中心数据显示,6日人民币对美元汇率中间报价6.7934,较前一交易日上涨1个基点。穆迪下调中国主权信用评级后,历经短暂波动,人民币对美元汇率持续走高并重回“6.7”时代,打破了“下调评级可能导致货币贬值”的“套路”。

“毫无疑问,它(降级)并不意味着短期内会发生什么危险。”在5日晚一场横跨12个时区的中美跨洋视频对话会中,美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员罗里·麦克法夸尔就穆迪下调中国主权信用评级发表看法。

麦克法夸尔曾担任美国前总统奥巴马的国际经济事务特别助理,在他看来,尽管穆迪5月24日将中国主权信用评级从Aa3下调为A1,中国仍领衔新兴经济体的主权信用评级,依然是适合投资之地。

“穆迪降级不会对中国产生巨大影响。”同为彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员的杰若明·策特尔迈尔表示,中国没必要对穆迪下调评级反应过度。“降级只是对风险的预测,考虑到中国经济增长的趋势和动力,我认为出现危机的概率非常低,不能说完全没有,但确实极其的低。”

屏幕这头,坐着中国人民银行营业管理部主任周学东、国家统计局国际统计信息中心主任王军、国务院发展研究中心金融所所长张承惠、大成基金首席经济学家姚余栋以及大公国际评级集团董事长关建中等中方业内人士。

这场由中国财富传媒集团中国财富研究院主办的跨洋会议,核心议题是围绕穆迪下调中国主权信用评级进行深度探讨并研究应对举措。

在多位与会中方专家看来,由于种种原因,多年来以穆迪为主的几家国际评级机构对中国的主权信用评级实际上一直偏低。

“穆迪下调中国评级存在误判。”张承惠说,从穆迪给中国降级的依据看,穆迪高估了中国政府对刺激政策的依赖程度,低估了中国供给侧结构性改革的成效,同时对中国政府债务稳定性的判断还存在偏差。

张承惠认为,穆迪把地方融资平台、国有企业等渠道的未偿债务都计入中国政府的或有债务,这种计算方法不科学。“据我们调研,很多地方政府的融资平台越来越倾向于市场化运作,因此这些融资平台和国企债务不能简单都归结为政府债务,政府对它所承担的义务只是以出资额为限。”

姚余栋说,穆迪没有考虑到中国供给侧结构性改革的创新意义和实质效果,在时机尚未成熟之时犯了“职业错误”,这将在未来影响穆迪本身的声誉。

而关建中则认为,由穆迪等国际评级机构主导的评级标准本身就不合理、不公平,在经济全球化发展的背景下,各方应该重新审视现有评级体系,加快改革,共同构建一个新型的国际评级体系。

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