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黄金上升态势保持良好

2017-09-05 09:26:53   中国经济网

上周五纽约盘中,黄金表现一波三折,短线跳升至去年11月以来的新高1328.82美元/盎司后大幅跳水最低触及1315.80美元/盎司,随后又拉升,收报1324.65美元/盎司。周末朝鲜方面传出试验氢弹成功,本周一亚洲早盘,现货黄金急剧跳升高点到达1340。

美国上周五公布的非农数据显示,8月份美国新增非农就业人数为15.6万人,预期为17万人。另外,工资在过去12个月时间里增长了2.5%,与7月份相比则保持不变。此次非农数据不仅就业人数增长远低于预期,而且最大的问题是薪资增长乏力,自2015年11月份以来就停滞在当前水平附近。而自年初以来通胀表现也一直差强人意,其停滞不前,将是美联储收紧货币政策所缺失的一个重要的支撑。8月非农的糟糕表现,大大削弱了年底第三次加息的预期。缺乏加息这条重头的支撑因素,年底前美元若想从弱势中恢复元气似已变得艰难,除非三、四季度经济表现出现惊人表现的增长,否则仅有的也就是一些技术性小反弹而已。如果朝鲜半岛地缘政治局势危机持续,风险避险情绪在本年的黄金市场始终贯穿着,黄金年内几度回落后都受到多头不离不弃的坚韧追逐,可见黄金依然是投资者今年热衷的配置资产。

从技术面上看,周线级别图上看,金价突破关键的1300大关后,上升态势保持良好,各项技术指标向上趋向性显著,周一亚盘已然突破近期高位1326,如果朝鲜核试事件继续升级,受避险情绪抬捧之下的黄金则有望冲破1350奔向2016年7月5日的高位1375,年内甚至还有望进发至1400。前期若是在1300突破进多的头寸可略减磅继续持有,未建仓者则侯短线的回落能不能站立1326之上,才逢低继续介入多头黄金,上方目标1350~1375一带,止损则宽设在1310之下。

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