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“吉林药方” 药力几何

2017-08-30 06:21:28   中国青年网

北京大学新结构经济学研究中心运用新结构经济学理论开出的“吉林药方”日前引发了一场大讨论。面临转型发展和振兴重任的东北老工业基地,在“扬长”的同时,要“避短”,还是“补短”?针对这些问题,专家各抒己见——

近日,北京大学新结构经济学研究中心主任林毅夫团队发布《吉林省经济结构转型升级研究报告(征求意见稿)》(以下简称《吉林报告》),报告在梳理吉林经济结构的短板与长处的基础上,应用新结构经济学方法“扬长补短”,为吉林省甄别筛选了一批“符合潜在比较优势的产业体系”。

不过,这份运用新结构经济学理论开出的“吉林药方”在征求意见时,却引发了一场讨论。讨论的焦点在于,面临转型发展和振兴重任的东北老工业基地,在“扬长”的同时,要“避短”,还是“补短”?

聚焦五大产业集群

东北地区是新中国工业的摇篮和重要的农业基地,也是全国经济的重要增长极。“十三五”时期,东北老工业基地振兴面临的环境依然严峻复杂,既有挑战,更有机遇。

在林毅夫团队看来,吉林省经济发展面临的根本性问题与东北地区一样,即发展战略尚未根本上从违背比较优势型发展战略转型到遵循比较优势发展战略,这妨碍了对其经济增长潜力的充分挖掘。

“东北老工业基地在改革之前的发展,受益于国家推行的重工业优先发展的赶超战略;而东北老工业基地在改革以来的发展,则受累于赶超战略所遗留下来的,缺乏市场竞争力的产业、产品、技术结构,东北振兴战略需要采取遵循东北自身比较优势的发展战略。”林毅夫说。

按照这一思路,对于吉林省这样省情的区域而言,符合比较优势的工业化顺序必须是先轻工业充分发酵才可以大力推进重工业。否则,过去重工业优先发展的扭曲产业结构,一方面使得没有自生能力的重工业日趋没落,另一方面也使得符合潜在比较优势的劳动力密集型轻工业受到抑制。

因此,《吉林报告》建议,吉林省需要根据其资源禀赋结构与产业基础大力发展大农业、大健康、现代轻纺、现代装备以及以新能源、新材料和新一代信息技术为核心的融合型产业集群等五大万亿量级的符合其潜在比较优势的产业集群,深挖经济增长潜力。

争议焦点在发展轻纺

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