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2015年,中央提出供给侧结构性改革,抓住了当前阶段中国经济的主要矛盾,毫无疑问是正确的的战略决策。然而在执行过程中,部分地方政府和管理部门却出现了片面和选择性落实的问题:对那些真正触及生产关系层面,刀刃向内改自己的改革要求视而不见;只热衷于那些刀刃向外干预市场和企业的措施,正在逐渐背离供给侧结构性改革的初衷。以当前正在扩大化、运动化、执行偏差最严重的“去产能”为例:“去产能”的初心是去“僵尸企业”,“去产能”的本质是结构性的供给管理而非改革措施;“去产能”背后的思想和执行手段大部分是计划经济思维;“去产能”层层加码乃至扩大化的结果是扭曲市场信号、造成不合理的利益再分配、转移改革视线并最终干扰供给侧结构性改革的全面深入推进。因此,有必要发起改革之辩,探讨究竟什么才是衡量供给侧改革成效的根本标准?
一、“去产能”扩大化及其影响——扭曲市场的利益狂欢
2016年以来,中国部分能源、原材料价格持续大幅上涨,焦炭指数从649点最高上涨至2330.0点,最高涨幅244%,焦煤指数从561点最高上涨至1650.5点,最高涨幅194%,螺纹钢指数从1820点最高上涨至4053点,最高涨幅123%,铁矿石指数从324.5最高涨至726.5点,最高涨幅124%。在总需求基本稳定的背景下,真正引发上述能源原材料涨价的,并不是什么新周期,而是“去产能”政策扩大化造成的供给收缩,以及以此为基础的投机炒作。在不断强化的“去产能”供给收缩预期下,这些所谓“过剩”产能行业的产品,居然像几十年前供应短缺时代的产品一样成倍暴涨,不但严重扭曲了市场机制和价格信号,影响经济的复苏,而且还无形中造成了三个财富再分配:第一个财富再分配,是下游制造业和上游能源原材料企业之间的财富再分配,例如,今年上半年,采矿业实现利润总额同比增长13.4倍;制造业实现利润总额仅增长18.5%;第二个财富再分配,是中小民营企业和国有大型企业之间的财富再分配,例如,今年上半年,规模以上工业企业中,国有控股企业实现利润总额同比增长45.8%,私营企业实现利润总额仅增长14.8%;第三个财富再分配,是进口成本上升,造成国民财富向外流失。今年上半年,中国共退出煤炭产能1.11亿吨,同时进口煤炭1.31亿吨,同比增加2300万吨,国内去产能的同时,国外厂商扩产并加大向中国市场出口,如印尼、澳大利亚等产煤国、产矿国对华出口明显增加,出口价格大幅提高,也造成了中国国内财富的流失。对那些上述财富再分配中获益的企业而言,从天而降的“大馅饼”对于提高企业的长期竞争力也未必是好事,反而会削弱改革的动力,为下一轮问题埋下伏笔。而每一次去产能扩大化,都造成一轮大宗商品和相关资产的价格暴涨;每一轮暴涨和获利者的狂欢,在扭曲市场抬高制造业成本的同时,更是迅速滋生聚集了巨大的利益链条和相关领域的寻租机会——这些现象对供给侧改革的影响和伤害不容忽视。
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