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潍柴较中信目标价仍需翻番 机构对上市公司的预估靠谱吗

2017-08-16 10:44:57   中国经济网

对于掌握更多信息、熟悉市场动态的券商和基金来说,其对上市公司经营、股价评估预测的变化,往往会成为市场关注的焦点。

经济导报记者了解到,尔康制药9日公告称,因信息披露涉嫌违法,公司已被证监会立案稽查,存在被暂停上市风险,目前公司股票仍在停牌中。

6家公司业绩预期被调低

有市场分析人士表示,基金只有重仓该上市公司,才会给出估值调整的公告。换个角度说,就是基金对这家公司经营、市场等方面已做了全面细致的考量,调整也就有据可依。

与基金等投资机构不同,提供信息服务的券商,对上市公司评估的调整更为频繁。

经济导报记者通过Choice金融终端统计发现,仅8月以来,就有杰瑞股份等6家上市公司被券商下调全年盈利预期。

其中,兴业证券成尚汶等人9日发布的研报显示,预计杰瑞股份2017年归属于母公司的净利润2.52亿元、营业总收入32.27亿元。而就在7月26日,该团队对公司的报告中还给出了2017年净利润4.75亿元,总收入40.90亿元的预估。

以此计算,兴业证券对杰瑞股份全年净利、营收的预测分别下调了46.95%和21.10%。

值得关注的是,有些上市公司虽然没有被下调业绩预期,但其股价已明显高出券商的预估。

同样是中金公司,其8月8日对长城汽车的报告中,给出了11元/股的目标价位,但公司最新收盘价已经到了12.99元/股,超出目标价15.45%。

多鲁股获券商力挺

不过,券商报告对上市公司的预期并不像基金那样一致。如对杰瑞股份2017年的业绩,东兴证券10日的报告中给出了2.84亿元净利、40.89亿元营收的预期,较兴业证券的预测高出不少,也大幅高出东兴证券7月27日对公司的业绩预期。

“基金一般不会上调上市公司的估值,因为一旦出现估值上调幅度过高的情况,就会产生利益分配不公的现象。但券商报告中的调整,不会直接挂钩到相关资管产品,所以自由度比较高。”王瑞鑫说。

王瑞鑫称,对于券商报告意见相左的上市公司,投资者应谨慎对待;若出现券商一致看好的公司,则可以适当关注。

其中,中信证券7月20日对潍柴动力给出了17元/股的目标价,较公司现价高出145.66%;海通证券同日对青岛金王的分析中,给出了40.20元/股的目标价,较最新收盘价高出100.20%;华创证券对东诚药业的分析报告最新——8月10日发布,目标价位20.30元-23.20元/股,较现价上浮超过70%。

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