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人民币汇率近期走升取决于经济基本面

2017-09-15 06:51:41   中国经济网

本轮人民币汇率走升根本上是由经济基本面决定的。今年以来,我国经济稳中向好,结构调整深化,主要指标好于预期,宏观经济稳定性增强。人民币汇率由基本面决定,并不意味着人民币就会呈现单边走势,人民币中间价定价机制的不断完善和市场的复杂性都决定了人民币汇率仍将双向波动

进入9月份,人民币汇率连续快速拉升。人民币中间价连续突破6.6、6.5等关口,在4日和5日,人民币中间价涨幅都超过了200个基点。这一轮连涨创下了2011年以来的最长连涨纪录。

本轮人民币汇率走势启动的时点在5月份,正是人民币中间价报价模型中引入逆周期因子之后,因此有人推测,推高人民币汇率的正是逆周期因子,甚至可能是“人为操纵”的结果。事实上,本轮人民币汇率走升根本上是由经济基本面决定的。

今年以来,我国经济稳中向好,结构调整深化,主要指标好于预期,宏观经济稳定性增强。今年二季度,我国GDP维持在6.9%,超出了市场预期,进而为人民币汇率近一段时间的走强打下了基础。尽管受季节性因素影响,宏观经济月度数据有所波动,但按照经济运行的内在规律和惯性,今年中国经济预计能够延续总体平稳态势。

在中国经济基本面向好的背景下,市场信心明显增强,并扭转了此前认为人民币汇率会大幅下行的预期。这从企业和个人近几个月的行为变化上能够得到印证。企业结汇比重,也就是将外汇收入结汇为人民币的比例上升。与此同时,个人购汇意愿继续下降。7月份,个人购汇环比和同比分别下降35%和27%;8月份,企业和个人卖出美元规模明显增加。

同期,我国国际收支状况明显改善,进一步支撑了人民币汇率企稳。近年来,部分企业在国内加杠杆,在境外非理性投资,导致资本无序外流。我国加强和改进跨境资本流动管理,鼓励资金流入,并对流出实行了调控。对外投资逐步恢复理性,资本流出状况得到了缓解,国际收支状况进一步好转。截至8月份,我国外汇储备已经实现七连增。

基本面向好也为货币政策转向稳健中性创造了条件,中美货币政策的背离明显收窄。今年以来,我国货币政策转为稳健中性,市场利率由低位反弹,尽管今年美联储两度加息,但中美利差仍有所扩大,这也有助于跨境资本流动形势转稳,为汇率回归合理均衡水平创造了条件。

由此可见,引入逆周期因子并非人民币汇率走升的决定性因素。逆周期因子的作用是,适当过滤外汇市场的羊群效应,使得市场整体预期更趋理性。今年上半年,我国基本面企稳向好的趋势相当明显,这在引入逆周期因子之前就应当反映在人民币汇率价格上。然而,当时外汇市场主体仍沉浸在人民币贬值预期中,因而基本面因素无法在汇率中及时、充分地体现出来。引入逆周期因子之后,这种状况得到改善,汇率形成机制的市场化程度提高,市场主体得以从人民币贬值预期中走出来,更加正视基本面状况,并扭转了对人民币汇率的单边贬值预期。

即使短期内人民币汇率因为部分因素扰动从而与基本面有所偏离,但归根结底最终还是会回归经济基本面。

当然,也需要看到,人民币汇率由基本面决定,并不意味着人民币就会呈现单边走势,人民币中间价定价机制的不断完善和市场的复杂性都决定了人民币汇率仍将双向波动。当前,各方普遍认为人民币汇率已较充分地反映了经济基本面,汇率总体处于合理均衡水平。在前期人民币贬值预期释放、企业预期扭转之后,接下来,人民币汇率弹性有望进一步增强。(陈果静)

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