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11连涨后两连跌 人民币汇率单边升贬值概率低

2017-09-14 07:31:22   中国经济网

每经记者 张寿林 每经编辑 毕陆名

9月13日,人民币对美元中间价下跌105点,报6.5382。当日,人民币对欧元、英镑、澳元中间价均不同幅度下跌,特别是对英镑跌903点报8.6848。这是政策调整后接连第二日下跌,此前人民币对美元连续11个交易日上涨,中间价从6.6579连续升至6.4997。

近日,央行下发了《关于调整境外人民币业务参加行在境内代理行存放存款准备金政策的通知》,境外人民币业务参加行在境内代理行存放存款准备金从即日起取消。此外,央行还下发了《关于调整外汇风险准备金的通知》,从9月11日起,外汇风险准备金率从20%下调为零。

中国银行国际金融研究所研究员王有鑫在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出,此前人民币对美元中间价连续11天上涨,市场结汇增多,预期逆转,对出口贸易带来影响,为避免汇率继续大幅升值,本周央行汇率调控出现松动,一方面取消存准和调降外汇风险准备金率;另一方面用逆周期调控因子控制中间价上行,希望引导汇率实现双向波动。其背后反映的是央行不希望汇率继续大幅单边升值,而希望实现波动。

释放离岸市场流动性

此轮20%的外汇风险准备金率开始实施于2015年9月。在“8·11汇改”后的初期,人民币汇率一度出现波动,收取外汇风险准备金有助于打击人民币做空。

2016年,为抑制跨境人民币资金流动的顺周期行为,央行对境外金融机构在境内金融机构存放执行正常存款准备金政策。

王有鑫在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时指出,这其实有迹可循,“8·11汇改”后,人民币汇率一度出现波动,CNH通常较CNY贬值幅度更大,会带动境内人民币汇率贬值。为了抑制离岸市场人民币汇率的波动,央行决定对境外参加行和清算行征收存款准备金,因为当时跨境资本流出很大一部分以人民币形式流出,这部分人民币资金到了香港后,换汇成美元加剧了离岸市场的波动,进而传导到在岸市场,因此央行希望通过冻结部分人民币资产来减少离岸做空势力的“弹药”。当前,情况已然发生了变化,年初至今人民币升值7%左右。

中国金融四十人论坛高级研究员、前国家外汇管理局国际收支司司长管涛告诉《每日经济新闻》记者,这两项措施此前是在离岸市场贬值压力比较大时出台的,增加了境外持有人民币的成本,起到了抽走离岸市场人民币的流动性,推高离岸市场人民币利率,增加境外做空人民币成本的作用。现在取消,实际上就起到了反向作用,降低成本,增加离岸市场流动性。

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