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海通宏观团队姜超等人认为,尽管8月CPI和PPI均有走高,但CPI上涨因素中除了蛋价是触底反弹外,猪肉、鲜菜等其它食品涨价主要来自季节性;PPI涨价主要来自供给收缩,而下游需求却在回落,再加上基数大幅攀升,PPI同比仍趋下行;上游PPI涨价虽然会向CPI中非食品类消费品传导,但力度非常有限,年内整体通胀仍趋下行。从货币政策操作来看,央行继续“削峰填谷”,避免资金面大幅波动的同时,利率中枢仍维持在高位,紧平衡态度未变。
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