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股市“预言帝”任泽平:未来半年到一年将迎来结构性牛市
2017-08-29 15:55:36 中国经济网
经济日报-中国经济网北京8月29日讯 近日,被称股市“预言帝”的方正证券首席经济学家任泽平再次发表大胆预测,称未来半年、一年,A股会走出结构性的牛市。
任泽平在方正证券深圳会议上表示,对于债市,他和市场的观点不太一样。市场在去年底的时候流行的看法,认为在今年一季度经济通胀就下去了,所以要看多债市、看空股市,而他的观点恰恰相反,无论是经济复苏还是通胀,持续的时间是超出市场预期的,所以认为债市交易的时间窗口仍然需要等待。汇率短期能够稳住,出口改善、外占收窄这对于国内的市场,包括以人民币计价的资产都是有利的。
“港股已经走出了牛市,A股的结构性牛市是可以期待的。”任泽平说。
任泽平认为,这轮小周期复苏可能会能持续到今年的上半年,下半年会有回落,但回落的幅度不深,更重要的是企业业绩会非常好,因为产能出清。任泽平2014年提出 “新5%比旧8%好”,2015年提出的“经济L型”,分别在2016年、2017年得到验证。
任泽平一向敢于大胆预言,并以预言精准见称。特别是在2015年精准预测到了沪指冲上5000点。2014年8月18日,时任国泰君安首席宏观分析师的任泽平发表研究报告,预测沪指冲高到5000点上方。2015年6月5日,沪指登上5000点大关,实现了任泽平之前的预测目标位。
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