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美联储将于10月开始缩减资产负债表 维持基准利率不变

2017-09-21 08:12:05   中国青年网

如预期所料,美联储选择利率政策按兵不动,并将于10月开始缩表。

北京时间9月21日凌晨2时,美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率在1%-1.25%不变,并将从10月开始缩减规模高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表(缩表)。反映美联储官员利率预测的点阵图显示,年内或有一次加息,明年或将加息3次。市场预计,美联储下一次加息时间或在今年12月。

美联储在议息声明中表示,将从10月开始缩表,这将是美联储自2015年12月启动危机后首次加息以来,货币政策走向正常化的又一重大举动。

美联储早在今年6月公布了缩表方式(但没有公布缩表开始和结束的时间):缩表的起步上限为每个月100亿美元,其中美国国债为60亿美元、住房抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)为40亿美元;缩表的每个月最终上限为500亿美元,其中美国国债300亿美元、MBS为200亿美元。从起步上限逐步按每三个月递增一次,每次递增100亿美元(60亿美国国债+40亿MBS)的节奏到达最终上限,也即从起步上限到最终上限将耗时12个月,缩表规模最大可达3000亿美元,之后每年缩表规模最大达到6000亿美元。

所谓缩表,可以理解为量化宽松(QE)的反向操作,因此如果说QE是向市场“放水”的话,缩表就是从市场“抽水”了。2008年金融危机后,美联储将联邦基金利率(短期利率)降至0-0.25%,利率已降无可降,故而启动了三轮量化宽松政策,购买了大量美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券,以压低长期利率,刺激美国经济复苏。在这个过程中,美联储资澎湃新闻消息,产负债表的规模从危机前的不到1万亿美元膨胀至目前的4.5万亿美元。

从2008年全球金融危机爆发至今,美联储分别在2015年12月、2016年12月、2017年3月、2017年6月加息4次,每次0.25个百分点。

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