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【理上网来·热点解析】张其佐:习主席为金砖合作和中国发展指明方向
当前世界和中国经济形势如何、将走向何方?金砖发展趋势是否会改变?这些问题势必在此次金砖国家领导人厦门会晤上引发热烈讨论。9月3日下午,国家主席习近平出席了金砖国家工商论坛开幕式并发表主旨演讲。习主席对世界、金砖国家及中国的经济形势进行了精辟分析,凸显了金砖精神,彰显了中国的信心定力、责任担当和党中央治国理政新理念新思想新战略,为金砖合作和中国经济发展指明了方向。
首先,习主席作出了“世界经济尚未走出亚健康和弱增长的调整期,新动能仍在孕育”的经济形势新判断,科学地回答了世界经济要“怎么看”的问题。
当前世界经济有所改善,但主要经济体的表现有所分化,通胀水平仍在低位运行。美国今年一、二季度分别增长1.2%和3%,IMF预测美国2017-2018年分别增长2.1%,距特朗普上台提出增长3%的目标有较大差距,说明美国经济复苏波折反复,仍未摆脱后危机时代温和复苏的基本格局。欧元区和日本经济有所改善,但日本仍未彻底摆脱滞涨阴影。新兴市场经济体总体增长较快,但仍面临调整与转型压力。总之,世界经济处于弱增长。究其原因,是实体经济尤其制造业仍未形成新的主导产业和经济增长点,仍未摆脱2008年金融危机至今长达10年的负面影响。正如习主席在2016年9月3日二十国集团工商峰会上所指出的,“上一轮科技和产业革命提供的动能面临消退,新一轮增长动能尚在孕育”。
其次,习主席作出了“金砖国家不断向前发展的潜力和趋势没有改变”的论断,发出了“共同开创金砖合作第二个‘金色十年’”的倡议。
过去的十年,金砖国家秉持开放、团结、平等、相互理解、包容、互利合作原则,书写了精彩的金砖答卷。展望未来,虽然世界经济处于疲弱期,发展失衡、治理困境、公平赤字等问题显得更加突出,保护主义和内顾倾向有所上升,但“我们正处在一个大发展大变革大调整的时代”,和平发展仍是世界的主题,新一轮科技革命和产业革命蓄势待发。人类社会的历史告诉我们:和平与发展互为基础和前提,开放是导向,改革创新是动力,人文交流是内涵。面对机遇与挑战挫折,新兴市场和发展中国家的经济增长乃是世界的亮点。当前中国和印度经济继续领先增长,俄罗斯和巴西走出衰退逐步企稳,南非保持小幅增长。IMF今年7月预测:发达经济体今年经济增速为2%,明年为1.9%;新兴市场和发展国家今年经济增速为4.6%,明年为4.8%。新兴市场国家和发展中国家经济增速是发达国家的两倍以上,仅过去10年金砖国家对世界经济增长的贡献率就超过50%。正如世界银行2011年的报告所揭示的一个崭新的世界经济格局:“现代历史上,从未有如此之多的发展中国家位于多极经济体系的前沿。”
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