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央行外汇占款连降20月 业内:短期内或由降转增
2017-07-18 05:02:17 经济参考报
中国人民银行17日发布的“货币当局资产负债表”6月统计数据显示,6月央行口径外汇占款余额为21.5万亿元人民币,减少343.15亿元人民币,为连续第20个月下降,降幅较5月的293.34亿元也有所扩大。
交行金融研究中心高级研究员刘健表示,6月外汇占款减少343.15亿元人民币,并继续保持低位震荡,主要受人民币汇率和季节性因素影响。6月人民币对美元汇率先升后贬,但整体上贬值预期明显减弱。不过,虽然贸易顺差连续四个月稳步回升,一定程度上有助于外汇占款的改善,但贬值预期依然存在,结售汇保持弱平衡但仍呈净售汇状态。加之夏季出境旅游购汇增加及境外上市的中国公司年中集中派发股息等季节性因素,对外汇占款有一定的负面影响,因此,外汇占款降幅小幅增加。
不过,刘健预期,短期内外汇占款有望稳中向好。随着季节性因素减弱,中国短期经济数据超预期,美元指数低位震荡,人民币对美元汇率有望保持稳定,预计短期内外汇占款有望继续改善,未来1至2个月不排除转正的可能。
国家外汇管理局有关负责人表示,往前看,我国经济增长的稳定性和协调性在不断提升,从产业支撑、发展动力、发展信心、发展环境等多个方面分析,我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好的态势将继续巩固、持续。金融市场扩大开放,外汇市场健康发展,市场预期稳定,跨境资金流动和外汇市场供求基本平衡,将进一步推动外汇储备规模保持稳定。
不过,业内人士也分析称,即使未来新增外汇占款转正,也难重现2014年以前持续大幅增加的局面。目前市场对人民币汇率走势的预期主要变化体现在贬值预期减弱上,但并没有出现明显的升值预期。未来人民币汇率更大概率是呈现双向波动,资本流入流出有望趋于平衡但难免出现波动,外汇占款单月的增加或减少均可能出现。
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