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央行公开市场操作连续停摆十二日 本周或重启逆回购

2017-07-12 09:23:54   经济参考报

央行公开市场操作连续“停摆”十二日

央行10日公告称,目前银行体系流动性在对冲政府债券发行缴款和央行逆回购到期等因素后处于适中水平,周一不开展公开市场操作。当日有300亿逆回购到期,全天净回笼300亿元。自此,央行已连续12个交易日暂停公开市场操作。业内专家表示,鉴于市场情况,本周央行或将重启逆回购操作。

在资金利率方面,周一Shibor多数下跌。“7月以来,市场根本不缺资金,借钱是一件很容易的事。央行公开市场操作仍将维持‘削峰填谷’的思路,未来资金面整体将保持基本平稳状态,但在多重因素的扰动下,资金面宽松程度可能逐步收敛。”对此,有市场交易人士表示。

对此,兴业研究报告认为,随着收益率的回落以及地方政府债发行速度加快,本周以及下周地方债发行量均超过了2000亿元,这会使银行流动性总量进一步下行。具体来看,发行时间点集中在7月7日以及7月11日,对应的缴款日分别为7月10日以及7月12日,即下一周由于地方债发行缴款所回收的流动性即将超过3000亿元,预计将触发逆回购的重启。

本周央行公开市场有2800亿逆回购到期,周一至周五分别到期300亿、400亿、500亿、600亿、1000亿;此外,本周四还有1795亿MLF到期。因此,本周共有4595亿资金将到期。而7月份共有9175亿元资金到期,其中,逆回购有5600亿元,中期借贷便利有3575亿元。

对此,兴业银行首席经济学家鲁政委分析认为,“本周应该会看到央行的逆回购开始出现。第一个原因是前期公开市场操作的到期,到期就意味着回笼、减少。第二,最近有一家机构的转债要发行,其实,转债发行的验资也会对市场产生明显的冲击。在这样的情况下,接下来的这一周央行重启逆回购应该是概率非常高的一件事情。”

而在招商固收徐寒飞看来,央行当前政策的主基调,仍然是维护银行体系流动性水平处于既不过度紧张也不过度宽松的适中状态。

(责编:王子侯、杨曦)

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