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中韩建交25周年:被中国抛弃 韩第8大工业国能否保住

2017-08-24 07:57:17   瞭望智库

这是一次政治意义非常明显的“站队”,韩国既然选择了站在美国那边,就必须承担这种选择所带来的一切后果。从今往后,中国彻底放弃“以实惠换交情”的幻想,不再将韩国视为可以争取的战略盟友。中国不仅难以在政治上信任韩国,而且也不会再以官方努力促进中韩经贸合作,这必然对韩国经济发展造成深远影响。

韩国的GDP虽然在世界上排名第13左右,但韩国从自然禀赋来说只能算是小国。小国的经济发展模式与大国不同。

这首先表现在韩国不可能建立起门类较为齐全的工业体系。中国和美国这样的大国凭借丰富的自然禀赋,能够建立门类高度健全的工业体系,历史上苏联也曾做到这一点,所以才会有“中美俄大三角”这样的说法。而韩国领土面积只有10万平方公里,比浙江省还略小一点。小国凭藉有限的资源禀赋不可能建立门类高度健全的工业体系,而只可能在世界工业体系的分工中抢占某几个产业的制高点。历史上,韩国经济得以在20世纪70年代以后发展起来,得益于造船、海运、汽车、电子、化工等几大支柱产业的崛起。

(图片来源于网络)

其次是韩国的对外依存度必然会极高。韩国人口只有5200万左右,其国内市场规模远不足以消化工业产能,因此,积极发展外向型经济是韩国的必然选择。韩国2014年的外贸依存度高达82.6%,而同期中国的外贸依存度为40.5%。极高的外贸依存度意味着韩国经济很容易受到外部环境的影响。中国对于韩国的重要性远高于韩国对中国的重要性,这是经济体量在客观上决定的。2015年中韩贸易额为2758.2亿美元,占当年中国GDP的2.49%,而占韩国当年GDP的19.9%。

这两点是韩国这样的小国很难克服掉的“毛病”,韩国经济其实很脆弱,但即便如此,韩国还是一意孤行,走向了中国的对立面。

此后,中国对韩国的态度发生了转变,也就意味着两国经贸关系格局出现质变——由合作走向竞争。

按照中国原先对于中韩自由贸易区的构想,中国和韩国可以在经贸联盟的框架下进行适当分工,通过密切合作共同获利。韩国的政治站队将促使中国转身,而这意味着两国经贸关系将转向长期竞争。

与体量巨大的中国竞争,韩国真没有胜算。

单纯从自然禀赋来说,中国就比韩国高出一个数量级,人口也比韩国高一个数量级,这就给了中国经济更大的发展机会:

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