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中韩建交25周年 专家:文在寅政府的对华政策是“有想法,没办法”

2017-08-24 22:51:07   国际在线

图为24日的察哈尔学会中韩建交25周年研讨会现场 摄影:黎萌

国际在线报道(记者 黎萌)8月24日是中韩建交25周年纪念日,但目前两国关系却处于25年来的冰点。有专家学者指出,中韩建交以来经历了24年左右的平稳快速发展时期,甚至曾一度达到所谓的“蜜月期”。但“萨德”入韩,打断了中韩关系正常发展的进程,中韩关于萨德的分歧不断加大。文在寅政府对中国的政策也一直踌躇不前。中韩关系面临严峻的挑战,但也不是没有转圜的可能。

在察哈尔学会24日举办的中韩建交25周年研讨会上,南京大学国际关系研究院院长朱锋认为,对于中国来说,面临最主要的挑战是如何在更长的时间内,有效地经营和发展好和韩国这样很重要的邻国关系,同时有效地发挥中国在半岛事务上的影响力。韩国是走不出美国阴影的,在重要问题上一定是紧靠美国,甚至不惜付出经济的代价。这个问题我们千万不要低估韩国政府的决心和意志。

南开大学周恩来政府管理学院副教授、亚洲研究中心副主任李春福表示,文在寅8·15光复节的讲话传达了两个信息:一是朝鲜半岛不能有战争,二是任何关乎半岛的事情一定要征得韩国国民的同意。这很显然是给了美国总统特朗普的混乱政策一个战略警告信号。文在寅正在慢慢地摸索韩国对半岛问题的主导权。

韩国东亚和平研究院院长金相淳表示,文在寅总统最近说了一句话,“国家的安全不能让步,不能妥协”。现在他与上台之前的说法有了一些变化,中国对这一点有可能不太理解。中韩关系之前有20多年的良好发展,为什么碰到一个萨德问题就变得这么冷漠?现在两国有很多误区,理解、信任和沟通都不足,导致合作的空间都没有了。

中国人民大学国际关系学院国际政治系副教授成晓河认为,中韩关系最坏的时候已经过去,对中韩关系持审慎乐观的态度。如果中韩之间不采取进一步恶化两国之间的关系的举措,那么中韩关系的低点就过去了。中韩之间的矛盾还是局部的,不是战略性的,而且是可控的。文在寅政府的对华政策是“有想法,没办法”,即迫切想要改善对华关系,但苦于没有良策。

延边大学政治与公共管理学院政治系教授王晓波表示,萨德问题有的学者认为是无解,我认为不是无解,大家在寻求一个好办法,甚至有的时候是没有办法的办法,像“双暂停”,我理解就是双方妥协、化解矛盾。大家暂时停下来,大家都消消火,看看是继续往前发展还是往回走。中国提出这么一个倡议,我个人认为也是一个折中的办法,是希望在量变当中解决问题。

外交学院国际关系研究所讲师、国际安全研究中心秘书长凌胜利表示,中韩关系不好对于东北亚地区是非常被动的。但萨德问题不解决,中韩关系未必就没有转圜的可能。毕竟萨德还没有完全部署,还有文章可以做。随着中韩关系恶化的时间越长,是不是中国的底牌也会展现出来?因为一直僵在这里不是解决问题的办法。但是目前,文在寅政府没有一个好的时机来实现以拖待变的策略。

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