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70年后,美国的首要对手已经不是俄罗斯!

2017-08-14 09:31:24   瞭望智库

对特朗普,普京曾有不少期许:撤销给俄罗斯造成500多亿美元损失的经济制裁、默认克里米亚归属俄罗斯、默许在乌克兰实行联邦制的条件下解决乌克兰冲突、不再推动北约东扩、承认俄罗斯在中东打击“伊斯兰国”恐怖组织的行动中为平等盟友、不干涉俄罗斯内政、不插手俄罗斯在后苏联地区势力范围的事务、承认俄罗斯是与美国有同等权利的国际主体……

据说普京在特朗普当选后曾打赌,说特朗普会践行竞选言论,把俄罗斯看作必须尊重和畏惧的核大国。

确实,美俄关系随后出现过几个“喜人”迹象:“双普会”顺利举行,时长四倍于原定,达成叙利亚停火协定;美国中情局暂停与叙利亚武装反对派秘密合作,向俄罗斯示好;美国极端反俄派共和党大佬麦凯恩被诊断患脑癌;指控特朗普“通俄”的联邦调查局局长科米被特朗普铁腕解职。

可惜,普京还是看走眼了。美国对俄罗斯制裁并未撤销,俄罗斯大使馆在美国的两处房产依然关闭,美国在中东拒绝与俄合作,美国支持北约加强在俄罗斯周边的军事部署,“通俄门”愈演愈烈,特朗普及其亲信深陷国内政治斗争的漩涡,最后,美国国会通过了加强对俄制裁的法案。

对美国如此凶狠的反俄制裁毫无反应,不符合俄罗斯“睚眦必报”和“以牙还牙”的外交传统。俄方不得不要求美国在9月1日前削减驻俄外交人员,并临时扣押美国在俄两处外交不动产。

细察之下,这种无关痛痒的举动根本称不上是“反制”。

其一,这个决定尽管反映俄罗斯对改善两国关系前景的失望,但也只不过是“迟来的报复”。

其实这两项“反制”措施早在今年年初即已拟定,当时之所以没有实施,是因为对特朗普尚存一息希望。2016年底奥巴马临下台前驱逐了35名俄罗斯驻美国外交官,查封了俄罗斯在美国的两处外交房产,普京出于在特朗普上台后改善俄美关系的大局考虑,隐忍不发,拖到现在才回击。

其二,此举对美国毫发无损。

俄罗斯虽然要求两国驻对方外交人员人数对等,但不是点名驱逐,而是让美国方面自己决定谁去谁留。目前美国驻俄外交机构总人数虽然高达1279名,但是其中934名是俄罗斯籍雇员,美国人仅345名。

也就是说,美国驻俄外交官不仅不必卷铺盖回国,反而还要努力增加110名才能达到限额,“被驱逐”的将是俄罗斯自己人。

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