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资金蓄势待发 业绩+估值仍是焦点

2017-10-13 07:42:53   

分析人士指出,从近期资金和市场走势的配合情况来看,当前两市持续震荡中的变盘动力正在增强。虽然当前震荡态势仍在延续,但资金方面越来越多的积极信号的出现正在为大盘累积向上动力,因此对待后市仍不必悲观。

业绩+估值仍是配置热点

当前市场中频繁的热点切换速度以及市场情绪的不稳定其实都一致指向对后市的缺乏信心。自大盘突破3300点后,由于前期领涨板块的“沉寂”,缺乏龙头板块的盘面数度冲击3400点未果,对市场信心造成了较大打击。同时由于在3300点-3400点区间震荡时间较长,对资金的耐心同样提出了考验。虽然市场向好态势已越发明显,但在缺少龙头板块的震荡行情中,投资者不仅“踏不准节奏”同时还相当“迷茫”。而在此背景下,后市板块间如何配置已越来越受到市场的关注。分析人士表示,后市对行业、标的估值和业绩的考察无疑仍是主要的焦点。

从沿着“日历效应”配置低估值板块的角度来看,申万宏源证券表示,历史经验表明,10月低估值行业大概率跑赢高估值行业。申万风格指数中的高、低市盈率/市净率指数表征高低估值行业表现,2010年以来,每年的4月以及四季度的10、12月份低估值跑赢高估值概率非常高,从单月来看,10月低市盈率跑赢高市盈率行业的概率超过70%,低市净率跑赢高市净率行业的概率更是高达85.7%。首先,每年10月前后正是三季报及全年业绩预告的时间段,高估值代表的新兴行业在前期给予过高预期,低估值行业反而年初预期就很低,全年盈利预期平稳甚至略超预期,财报公布后预期会扭转高低估值行业表现。其次,公募基金为博弈年底排名,提前获利换仓,也是推动低估值行业表现的一个重要因素。

中金公司表示,从具体配置上看,该机构建议淡化风格,从业绩出发进行布局。中金公司指出,三季度不同风格的指数出现持续的反弹,以大盘股为代表的上证50和沪深300指数进一步创出2016年以来的新高,而创业板指数在出现较大幅度的下跌后也迎来较大幅度反弹。往未来看,中金公司认为,在基本面和估值提升的驱动下,股指仍有上行空间,其中业绩增长将成为驱动未来股指上行的关键因素。

分析人士表示,一方面,虽然当前盘面企稳向好的动力正在增强,但由于市场热点的频繁切换,市场当前观望情绪依然较盛。另一方面,虽然热点在“一日游”行情中逐一“熄火”。但随着增量资金入场信号的明确,市场韧性正在增强,热点也料将很快“浮出水面”。

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