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此外,三季度北向资金加速流入的现象也尤为值得注意。分月度来看,自2017年4月以来,通过沪港通和深港通北上的资金净流入规模逐月扩张,7月净流入资金合计已经高达224.12亿元,较3月的111.71亿元翻倍。进入8月,北上资金热情依然不减,单月净流入270.28亿元,暂居年内月度资金净流入首位。到了9月,北上资金净流入金额仍然保持在高位水平,累计净流入208.08亿元,已连续第4个月超过200亿元。分析人士表示,一方面,北上资金素有“聪明资金”之称,其往往能踏准市场节奏,并成功布局一些中长线牛股,因此北上资金的整体流入、流出情况可为投资者布局四季度行情提供适当参考。另一方面,北上资金的流入无疑提升了A股市场的整体流动性,这也有助于后市A股市场的回暖。
中长期仍可看高
上证综指突破3300点后,各方资金始终缺乏对上冲3400点的一致共识。一方面是由于数度冲关3400点未果造成的“畏高”情绪。另一方面也是因为在盘面上,热点之间频繁切换,“赚钱效应”下降导致资金分歧所致。分析人士指出,虽然当前扰动因素仍然较多,但武断地做出趋势性的解读其实并不合理。当前基本面情况依然向好,越来越多迹象的出现也都表明A股后期走势并不悲观。
针对当前基本面的情况,华鑫证券表示,从9月最新公布的PMI数据来看,9月制造业PMI为52.4%,连续两个月上升,至2012年5月以来的最高点,环比、同比分别上升0.7%和2.0%,制造业继续维持稳中向好的发展态势。细分来看,9月PMI实现供需两旺,生产指数和新订单指数分别为54.7%和54.8%,比上月上升0.6%和1.7%,均处于近年来高点。结合此前,8月工业企业利润数据,更能说明当下经济基本面韧性十足,8月,规模以上工业企业利润总额为6719.7亿元,同比增速达24%,较上月大幅提升7.5%,创出2014年以来新高。1-8月累计工业企业利润总额为49213.5亿元,同比增长21.6%,较1-7月提升了0.4%。而韧性十足的国内经济环境,无疑为指数震荡上行提供了绝佳的环境,该机构进一步认为三、四季度经济基本面或将再度高出市场预期。
针对后市,中金公司也表示对于4季度的市场表现该机构并不悲观。从基本面上考虑,我国实体经济的表现仍然比较稳健,有助于稳定下半年的经济增长预期。PMI大超预期表明尽管面临环保政策的持续压力,但需求仍然保持强劲,9月经济活动增长可期。另外央行的定向降准政策不仅会在流动性上提供改善,同时更是为实体经济提供支持,经济稳定增长的预期将进一步增强,市场的风险偏好也将有望得到进一步的提升。
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