404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
A股中期上涨格局并未改变
2017-09-25 09:46:53 中国经济网
内在运行逻辑支持中长期上涨
从中长期的角度来看,A股市场有其内在的上涨逻辑。
首先,中国经济增长仍具韧性,今年前两个季度,中国GDP都实现了6.9%的增长,说明中国经济逐渐企稳了。今年上半年,我国工业企业利润大幅度回升,上市公司中报业绩明显改善,特别是前几年非常困难的周期性行业,利润更是出现爆发性增长。国内宏观经济持续好转,为人民币升值提供了经济基本面的支持。去年年底以来,人民币对美元汇率结束了长达三年的下降趋势,开始反转上涨。短短9个月,人民币对美元比价从6.96上涨到6.43,涨幅将近10%,创出16个月新高。人民币出现升值趋势后,我国资金外流的情况会得到很大改善,外汇储备会逐步回升,当然对资本市场也会产生利好的影响。人民币升值以后,国外资金流向国内后大都会配置在股票债券上,从而抬升这些资产的价格。虽然8月经济数据整体回落,实际是投资需求在环保督察和去产能等政策因素影响下的被动收缩,但是要看到金融数据依然强劲。8月新增社融总量1.48万亿,同比多增186亿元,8月新增人民币贷款10900亿元,同比多增1413亿元,显示实体经济融资需求仍旺盛,反映经济活力、信贷继续支持实体经济发展。今年以来,已有国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行、摩根大通、野村证券、渣打银行、花旗银行、经济合作与发展组织等10余家国际机构选择上调中国经济增速预期。从中长期来看,中国经济的稳定性、内生动力在不断增强。
图为人民币对美元汇率走势
其次,美联储缩表等于直接从市场抽离基础货币,虽然对流动性的影响较大,但资本市场对美联储缩表已有充分预期,总体反应较为温和。美联储发布消息后,美元指数从91.66附近跃升至92.6附近。笔者认为,现阶段美元指数表现仍受制于特朗普政治风险,很难有持续反弹的动力。此外,中国已经提前作出应对策略,中国央行早在8月悄然“缩表”。截至8月底,我国货币当局资产负债表规模为347144亿元,较7月底减少3466亿元,是今年3月以后的再次“缩表”。从反映外盘变化的因素来看,四季度人民币可能面临一定的贬值压力。不过,从反映市场供求的因素来看,伴随国内宏观经济持续向好,市场对人民币资产的回报预期趋于改善,因此人民币贬值空间也是有限的。
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
相关阅读
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
加载更多>>
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China
404 Not Found
404 Not Found
Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!
URL: |
http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170925/31510795_2.html |
Server: |
cms-8-251 |
Date: |
2024/11/15 19:24:26 |
Powered by China
China