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A股中期上涨格局并未改变

2017-09-25 09:46:53   中国经济网

内在运行逻辑支持中长期上涨

从中长期的角度来看,A股市场有其内在的上涨逻辑。

首先,中国经济增长仍具韧性,今年前两个季度,中国GDP都实现了6.9%的增长,说明中国经济逐渐企稳了。今年上半年,我国工业企业利润大幅度回升,上市公司中报业绩明显改善,特别是前几年非常困难的周期性行业,利润更是出现爆发性增长。国内宏观经济持续好转,为人民币升值提供了经济基本面的支持。去年年底以来,人民币对美元汇率结束了长达三年的下降趋势,开始反转上涨。短短9个月,人民币对美元比价从6.96上涨到6.43,涨幅将近10%,创出16个月新高。人民币出现升值趋势后,我国资金外流的情况会得到很大改善,外汇储备会逐步回升,当然对资本市场也会产生利好的影响。人民币升值以后,国外资金流向国内后大都会配置在股票债券上,从而抬升这些资产的价格。虽然8月经济数据整体回落,实际是投资需求在环保督察和去产能等政策因素影响下的被动收缩,但是要看到金融数据依然强劲。8月新增社融总量1.48万亿,同比多增186亿元,8月新增人民币贷款10900亿元,同比多增1413亿元,显示实体经济融资需求仍旺盛,反映经济活力、信贷继续支持实体经济发展。今年以来,已有国际货币基金组织、亚洲开发银行、摩根大通、野村证券、渣打银行、花旗银行、经济合作与发展组织等10余家国际机构选择上调中国经济增速预期。从中长期来看,中国经济的稳定性、内生动力在不断增强。

图为人民币对美元汇率走势

其次,美联储缩表等于直接从市场抽离基础货币,虽然对流动性的影响较大,但资本市场对美联储缩表已有充分预期,总体反应较为温和。美联储发布消息后,美元指数从91.66附近跃升至92.6附近。笔者认为,现阶段美元指数表现仍受制于特朗普政治风险,很难有持续反弹的动力。此外,中国已经提前作出应对策略,中国央行早在8月悄然“缩表”。截至8月底,我国货币当局资产负债表规模为347144亿元,较7月底减少3466亿元,是今年3月以后的再次“缩表”。从反映外盘变化的因素来看,四季度人民币可能面临一定的贬值压力。不过,从反映市场供求的因素来看,伴随国内宏观经济持续向好,市场对人民币资产的回报预期趋于改善,因此人民币贬值空间也是有限的。

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