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调整过后 A股有望迎来“红十月”

2017-09-25 07:31:53   中国经济网

从近十年来国庆节前后A股表现来看,节前一周涨跌对半,节后一周八次上涨、两次下跌,从行情走势来看,节后行情明显好于节前,也就是说节前大多是可以提前布局的。

从上周五盘面来看,5G概念表现抢眼,智能穿戴、物联网和新能源汽车表现活跃,资源股全天表现低迷,有色金属领跌,钢铁、化工全天低位震荡。回顾上周市场热点,随着“十一”双节临近,市场资金观望情绪浓厚,大盘出现震荡整理也在情理之中。

上周锂电池板块出现了分化走势,以盐湖股份为代表的盐湖提锂概念表现突出,五矿盐湖公司首批150公斤工业级碳酸锂产品青海盐湖顺利下线,标志着五矿盐湖全面进入工业化盐湖提锂阶段,如果进展顺利,明年产能将达到1万吨,据测算,2019年青海盐湖提锂总产能预计达到11万吨,这对有盐湖资源的上市公司产生了巨大利好。在国家大力发展新能源的政策下,降低上游锂的价格会助力下游新能源产品发展速度。

上周涨幅最大的是半导体板块,尤其是芯片设计企业。随着人工智能发展,芯片技术的突破无疑给人工智能发展带来飞跃进步,无人驾驶、智能医疗、智能家具的核心大脑还是芯片,人工智能科技发展是大势所趋,美国英伟达是以设计智能芯片为主的公司,两年市值增长了4.5倍,走在科技发展前沿。中国智能芯片起步晚,发展相对滞后,但是近年国产芯片异军突起,华为研发的麒麟970智能芯片极大地振奋了市场,投资者可继续关注芯片概念股的投资机会。

5G板块上周五集体大涨,极大带动市场人气。武汉凡谷率先涨停,随后中通国脉、美格智能、华星创业、纵横通信等十只个股封涨停。龙头股中通国脉从周二开始四连板,市场追捧热度极高。根据国家发展规划,5G发展分两步实施:2016年-2018年为5G国际标准研制;2018年-2020年开展5G商用测试。我国一直走在5G发展前沿,看好5G未来的发展及投资机会。

上周沪指和深成指周K线都收出十字星,出现明显的调整信号。目前市场还在3300点上方运行,并没出现严重大跌,只要不破3300点则后市无忧,不破周线缺口后市将有望继续震荡上行。市场向上的主趋势没有改变,向下调整是为了消化获利筹码,让上涨基础更坚实,市场上行会更健康、更长远。

从资金面来看,外围市场上美联储不加息,更好地“保护”了市场资金供需量;国内养老金4000亿元才用了不到四分之一,后期还会入场;上周四的险资参与债转股有效的帮助市场分担外来的资金压力,也是积极信号;更别忘记还有各路国家队还在陆续进场,这都是利好信号,不容忽视。

本周是本月最后一个交易周,市场谨慎情绪升温,获利较多的投资者会选择节前减仓观望,市场有可能继续承压调整。调整正是买入机会,投资者可关注三季报业绩预增的上市公司,逢低介入消费、5G、半导体、房地产等有业绩支撑的板块个股。

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