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深化铁路改革是攻坚战和持久战

2017-09-24 07:36:52   中国经济网

但是,通过数据分析,当年中国铁路货物发送量是美国的1.96倍、俄罗斯的2.44倍、印度的3.47倍;货物周转量与美国持平,比俄罗斯多1033.4亿吨公里,是印度的3.58倍;旅客周转量是美国的115.8倍、俄罗斯的9.28倍、日本的4.59倍,超印度1亿多人公里;客货运输换算密度是美国的2.66倍、日本的2.05倍,比俄罗斯多105万换算吨公里/公里,比印度多179万换算吨公里/公里。

不仅如此,近十年来,就世界范围而言,中国铁路旅客周转量、货物发送量、货物周转量、换算密度世界第一。中国铁路以占世界9%的铁路,完成世界近30%客货换算运输周转量。如果以美国铁路运输效率衡量,中国铁路是以10万多公里铁路承担了30万公里以上铁路任务量,等于中国少修10万公里铁路。按照每公里平均1亿元的造价计算,不仅为国家节省10 万亿元,还节约巨量土地等社会宝贵资源。

从经营效益看,铁总2016年总收入9074.48亿元,2017年将突破1万亿。按照铁路“十三五”规划,2020年铁总年总收入超过2万亿。从表面看,总收入与其总资产不匹配,净利润极低。但究其根本,铁总和其他国有企业却有特殊之处。

因为铁总(原铁道部)长期以来代表中央政府投资铁路基础建设、承担公益性运输,也就是铁路建设,名义上是国家投入,实际上绝大多数是需要铁路企业自筹资金、银行贷款等途径进行。在此情况下,铁路建设不是按照企业效益最大化投入的,而是为了国家和人民群众利益最大化建设投入的,并且还有严格市场价格管制。

很多投入效益,并不是体现在铁路,而是体现更多行业和地域,让全社会受益。根据中国铁路经济规划研究院数据,铁路投资与相关产业产出比例为1∶10,铁路有40%的投资通过材料费、人工费和人员费等形式用在当地消费上。这种宏观的收益,往往被舆论忽略,而一味指责铁路狭义的资产资本收益率低。

据统计,仅“十一五”“十二五”这十年,全国铁路职工(以210万人计),人均贡献资金超过600万元。如果以一个市场化程度高的中央企业衡量,就意味着这10年间,铁路企业从业人员人均少收入至少600万元。

因为不关注这些巨大的“边际效应”和“沉默贡献”,在一些媒体经济学家眼里,面对国企,特别是中央企业,盈利能力强,被认为“国进民退”;盈利能力弱,则被认为效率低下。笔者认为,这是一种悖论。

第四,从体制方面看,铁路确实存在政企不分问题,特别是原铁道部管理模式。对此,社会舆论普遍认为,铁道部是所谓计划经济的最后一个“堡垒”,制约了行业和社会的发展,将本世纪初之前的铁路发展滞后问题都归结于此,提出铁路早应深化改革发展。直至2013年3月次完成了顶层企业化改制。

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