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光伏201调查成窝里斗 连美方都联名反对

2017-09-24 07:31:52   中国经济网

尽管主流的美国光伏制造企业及开发商均作证反对有关诉求,但在贸易争端方面的政治角力才是影响初步裁决结果的关键。事实上,在一定程度上,这迎合了美国总统特朗普在竞选中发表的关于发展清洁能源的言论,其目的可能是要更多的制造企业回流美国。

9月22日的认定结果是ITC针对光伏组件的第一次损害宣判,内容包括:初步判断美国ITC对后续保护措施的倾向,并对美国乃至于全球光伏产业链的供给、价格等方面带来巨大的影响。

在美国,ITC结果出炉前的最后一刻,反对此次“201调查”的声音仍然不绝于耳。目前,在美国已经有16名参议员和53个众议院联名起来,反对此次“201调查”。

商务部发言人早在4月28日就对此表示,近年来,美国连续对国外光伏产品发起反倾销反补贴调查,已对美国内产业提供了救济措施。在此背景下,如美方再次发起保障措施调查,将是对贸易救济措施的滥用和国内产业的过度保护,会扰乱全球光伏产业链的正常发展秩序。

此前,国内包括协鑫、隆基、阿特斯、晶科、晶澳、天合光能等十多家巨头企业公开发布声明反对美国“201调查”。

潜在的影响

光伏上游产品价格在7月-8月出现了飙升。

事实上,大规模的光伏产业供应链自今年5月份,就已经开始趋向供应偏紧。究其原因,正是因为Suniva就国际贸易组织“201条款”诉求所导致的。“201条款”诉求方要求将光伏组件价格提升至每瓦0.78美元,较目前现货价格高86.6%。光伏业内人士告诉经济观察报,光伏组件价格提高将大幅度影响美国光伏电站开发商的项目回报,因此美国光伏开发企业大幅增加光伏组件备货以应对潜在惩罚性关税所带来的不利影响。

所以,在“201调查”结果宣判之前,为了减少可能的损失,美国不论是上游的制造商或是下游的电站投资商都选择了将需求提前,希望光伏产品能够在9月22日之前进关,以规避缴交保证金的风险。

招银国际对此分析道,美国光伏组件开发商就已签署项目以作光伏组件储备,对未决项目则因光伏组件价格不确定性较高,因此判断因“201条款”所带来的光伏组件需求已逐渐减弱。对于2017年余下时间及2018年的短期价格影响,将受“201条款”的裁决结果决定。

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