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两融直逼万亿:杠杆资金再度抬头 A股后市仍存分歧

2017-09-22 07:37:36   中国经济网

所谓股票场外配资,是指配资公司按照股民现有的资金量提供相应比例的资金,从而达到放大资金量的目的。这相当于加杠杆,在这个过程中,配资公司会根据其提供的资金量及期限收取利息,本质属于民间借资。

开通券商的融资融券业务需要大于50万的个人资产,杠杆为1倍,而民间配资则没有硬性的资金指标要求,杠杆一般可高达2-10倍,风险极大。由于配资机构并非合法从事证券经纪业务的合法机构,缺乏内控、风控和外部监督,因而游离在监管的灰色地带。

深圳一私募人士告诉中国证券报记者,他个人目前就使用了4倍杠杆的股票配资进行操作,近两个月来收益颇丰。“这段时间,我经常接到问我要不要配资的电话,行情确实已经起来了,不然配资也不会出现。”

而朋友圈中也有不少人士开始推销自家的配资产品,杠杆比例一般在5倍及以下,但也有最高杠杆做到10倍的。推销词中甚至有不少“动人”的语句:“行情飞起来你在观看,行情下跌你认为是机会,现在股票配资已经启动。”

除了股票配资,场外期权等变相股票配资业务也开始出现。事实上,2015年的火爆行情中,场外配资是搅动市场的主要力量之一。在觉察到场外配资的隐患之后,2015年7月12日,证监会正式发布《关于清理整顿违法从事证券业务活动的意见》,对违法配资予以清理整顿,随后场外配资一度销声匿迹。

  后市研判仍存分歧

虽然无论从场内还是场外的融资来看,市场资金都在跑步进场,但对于未来A股行情如何演绎,是否将迎来一轮新的牛市,市场观点难取得共识。

两融作为场内加杠杆行为,虽然很大程度上反映了市场情绪和参与主体对大盘(或个股)走势的预期。从历史数据来看,两融规模同上证综指走势的拟合度还是相当高的,但并不能仅凭这一单一指标进行方向判断。

尤其是融资买入行为的确同市场走势有高度契合之处并且能反映市场主体的参与热情,但也要看到,这一指标最多是个同步指标,并没有太强预示作用,甚至会表现出滞后性。在市场回调之前,常常能看到融资买入额突然迅速向上突破,因此过度依赖两融指标做方向判断有可能得出错误结论。

“近期股市流动性确实在不断好转,我们从成交量可以明显看出。其中两融余额回升的势头确实比较好,已经接近10000亿。北上资金也较为积极,日均流入在40亿上下,累计合计已超3000亿。另外,公募的仓位近2个月上升的相对较快,且产品发行和规模也有明显的转好势头。这只能说明交易情绪在环比改善,为同步指标,不能对未来进行前瞻指引。”清和泉资本方面表示。

天风证券表示,整体来说对两融指标应理性看待,历史数据显示两融指标并不是市场走势的前瞻指标;但是两融指标的提升是股市增量资金的重要证据。在确有增量资金入场的背景下,也是其依旧认为目前市场仍然处于做多窗口期的原因之一。

摩根士丹利华鑫基金方面表示,杠杆投资“双刃剑”的效果亦不可忽视,如果市场出现回调,杠杆资金避险情绪蔓延,可能会加剧“杀跌”带来的市场风险,因此投资者应审慎对待。

招商证券表示,处于监管灰色地带的股票场外配资可能会受到抑制,杠杆可能下降。即使是合规的场内融资,其规模也可能被监管层所关注,建议投资者短期谨慎操作。

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