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央广《王冠红人馆》财经报告:费希尔意外出走美联储,耶伦痛失干将能否连任?

2017-09-18 11:11:45   央广网

与总统特朗普"道不同"?

回顾这位著名经济学家的美联储历程不难看出,费希尔可以算是最为鹰派的决策者之一:长期以来,他提倡强化监管、保持央行独立性、逐渐紧缩,并与美联储主席耶伦共同制定了预计今年秋天开始的缩减其4.5万亿美元的资产负债表计划。

作为美联储副主席,费希尔的主要职责是维护美国金融稳定;他同时是货币政策决策机构--公开市场委员会(FOMC)的永久成员。

在货币政策方面,他多与耶伦意见一致,并且是加息与美联储"缩表"等货币政策正常化措施的主要筹划者之一。与此同时,他不断对外界传信号,提示长期低利率环境对金融稳定的潜在风险。

今年以来,他不断释放快速加息的信号。在多次公开采访中,他表示通胀放缓只是暂时因素,今年应该加息三次。

尽管以"个人原因"为由提出辞职,但外界猜测,费希尔选择离职也和特朗普政府"道不同"有关。就在宣布离职不久之前,费希尔用"极其危险"形容特朗普经济团队试图推翻金融监管的做法。

费希尔之所以用词严厉,是因为美国财政部在今年6月公布的题为《创造经济机遇的金融系统》。这份149页的报告由美国财政部长努钦署名,代表特朗普政府对金融监管的立场。

报告建议,美联储减轻银行压力测试的难度和频次,放松对部分金融机构准备金和流动性的要求。美国曾在金融危机后主导全世界加筑金融风险防火墙,但新一届的美国政府却在试图抹杀此前的努力,这让费希尔不安。

"在1930年后,又过了近80年,才出现了另一次可能有那么严重的金融危机。而现在,上一场危机才过去10年,每个人都想回到那场严重的金融危机爆发之前。这是极度危险、极度短视的。"费舍尔赞成放松对小银行监管,但坚决反对给大银行减负。

费希尔的态度,代表目前西方世界老牌政策制定者的主流观点,但却不一定得到金融从业者的广泛支持,也并不符合特朗普的短期需求。放松金融监管,有可能刺激或引发美国新一轮创业潮,增加企业投资,增加就业。这是特朗普最为看重的政绩,而并不在乎是否会滋生新一轮的投机浪潮,或是催生下一次经济危机。

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