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央广《王冠红人馆》财经报告:费希尔意外出走美联储,耶伦痛失干将能否连任?

2017-09-18 11:11:45   央广网

费希尔等人的研究基础上,上世纪80年代,曼昆、萨默斯等中青年经济学家为新凯恩斯经济学提供严密的微观基础,核心观点是:在应对外部冲击时,工资和价格不能及时调整使市场出清,从而使得宏观经济出现周期性波动。整体来看,新凯恩斯主义继承了凯恩斯主义的有效需求不足和宏观调控政策有效的核心观点,主张政府干预经济活动。

"中央银行的教父"

"费希尔是中央银行的教父。从这个角度来看,委员会正在失去一位几十年来一直处于政策领域的实力派人物。"德意志银行经济学家布Brett Ryan在一次电话采访中说。

在近50年的职业生涯里,费希尔可能称得上是现代经济政策教父之一。在上世纪70年代,身为学者的费希尔帮助设定了央行业务的方向。后来,在上世纪90年代末,作为国际货币基金组织第一副总裁,费希尔在应对亚洲和俄罗斯金融危机时发挥了主导作用。在2007-2009年,作为以色列央行行长,他带领以色列度过全球金融危机。

2005年5月1日,费希尔受以色列首相邀请,加入以色列国籍,担任以色列央行行长。在任职期间,国际金融危机于2008年爆发,费希尔帮助以色列度过了危机的冲击--即便是全球经济陷入衰退的2009年,以色列经济仍实现了1.27%的增速。

费希尔最早是麻省理工学院的经济学教授,任教时间超过20年,影响了几代经济学家,他的学生包括美联储前主席伯南克、欧洲央行行长德拉吉以及美国前财长萨默斯。伯南克曾说,费希尔是对他影响最大的老师之一。

伯南克和费希尔

欧洲央行行长德拉吉的MIT博士论文得到费希尔的指导,英国央行前行长墨文·金、印度央行两任行长拉詹和苏巴拉奥、智利央行前行长德格雷戈里奥等,都曾就读于MIT或在MIT做访问学者,都受到费希尔的深刻影响。

由此可见,21世纪以来,全球货币政策完全由费希尔领衔的"麻省理工货币学派"的MIT弟子所主导,与上世纪80-90年代弗里德曼主导货币主义的"芝加哥弟子"交相辉映。

2014年5月,在美联储原副主席耶伦被提升为主席后,费希尔加入美联储出任副主席。作为耶伦核心团队的主要成员,费希尔推动美联储逐步退出金融危机后采取的一系列宽松措施,包括结束多年基准利率零水平的历史,开始缓慢加息等。

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