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“猪周期”与生猪期货

2017-09-18 09:16:43   中国经济网

图为2006年至今全国猪肉均价走势(单位:元/公斤)

猪肉价格在CPI中的地位和权重

猪肉价格的形成机制

猪肉价格由市场供给和市场需求共同决定。供给取决于生猪出栏量、屠宰量以及猪肉进口量等。需求取决于居民消费结构、饮食习惯和收入等。市场经济条件下,供求关系的变化导致猪肉价格涨跌,而价格涨跌又反作用于猪肉供求关系。目前我国猪肉年消费量在5500万吨左右,近几年消费总量变化不大。因此,从供需双方的矛盾来看,影响猪肉价格的主要因素还是取决于供给方。

猪肉价格牵动肉类、禽蛋和粮食、饲料价格

肉、禽、蛋紧系国计民生。作为人民群众日常生活中 “菜篮子”的主打品种,其价格是影响我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)波动的重要因素。猪肉在我国肉类消费结构当中占比高达60%以上。而猪肉与牛羊肉、鸡肉、鸡蛋之间存在替代关系。猪肉价格的变动会影响消费者对牛羊肉、鸡肉的选择,从而影响牛羊肉、鸡肉、鸡蛋价格的变化。田文勇等专家2016年对我国猪肉价格与牛羊鸡肉价格动态关联的实证分析表明:猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉价格周期性波动频繁,价格波动幅度不断增大,波动周期持续时间逐渐变长,市场不稳定性逐渐增强,产业风险逐渐增大;猪肉价格与牛肉、羊肉、鸡肉价格存在长期稳定的均衡关系;猪肉价格波动主要受其自身影响较大,其次依次为鸡肉、羊肉、牛肉价格。也就是说,除自身供求关系的影响外,其他肉蛋品的替代性消费也会影响猪肉价格的涨跌。

玉米、豆粕作为生猪饲料的主要原料,其价格变化与生猪饲养量有着密切的关系。如果猪肉价格过高,说明当期生猪供给量不足,猪价也处于相应高位,有利于玉米、豆粕价格走强。后期生猪大量补栏,饲料需求增加,原料价格也会相应提升。反之,如果猪肉价格过低,说明当期生猪供给量充足,生猪饲养量大,饲料需求增加促进原料价格上涨;猪价过低又会导致抛售淘汰存栏减少,进而导致饲料需求下降,原料上涨乏力。

猪肉价格与CPI的联动效应

“猪肉领衔CPI”似乎成为中国城乡居民消费指数的一大特色。我国CPI构成共含有8类商品,其中食品类商品占比最大,权重为32.79%。猪肉在食品中占比为9.26%,占CPI比重的3.03%。作为CPI中权重最大的商品之一,猪肉必然对CPI产生重要影响,但这并非是其影响CPI的唯一路径,猪肉价格变动还会影响其他相关商品的价格,从而间接传导至CPI:一是由于猪肉在我国居民生活中占据重要地位,所以相比于CPI,居民对猪肉的敏感性更高,猪肉价格在一定程度上甚至可能改变居民的食品消费结构;二是因为鸡肉、鸡蛋均对猪肉有替代效应,当猪肉价格上涨到一定程度后,消费者就会选择鸡肉、鸡蛋等其他动物蛋白类食物来替代猪肉,需求的增加将推动鸡肉、鸡蛋等其他动物蛋白类食物的价格上涨,促使CPI进一步上扬。三是由于猪肉是我国居民动物类蛋白的主要来源,其价格变动一定程度上还会改变居民消费支出结构,甚至会影响居民日常支出结构,这种机制同样会对其他商品价格造成一定的影响,进而作用于CPI。

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