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改革增强经济韧性 不宜过度看空周期股

2017-09-18 08:31:45   新华网

过去一周,市场如期进入震荡调整。随着8月份经济数据出炉,市场担心经济下行风险加大,前期涨幅靠前的周期股出现了较大幅度的调整。

笔者认为,这种调整更多是博弈性质的调整,是由经济数据波动带来的预期波动,而非基本面转变导致的调整。经济的韧性犹在,不应对周期过于悲观。

通过梳理过去一周和过去三个月涨幅居前的行业,笔者发现两者呈现明显的差异化格局:本周涨幅居前的行业基本都是前期滞涨的行业,如房地产、电力设备等,前期上涨显著的周期性行业,如有色、钢铁、煤炭等都出现较大幅度的回调。8月经济数据出炉,包括工业增加值增速、出口等多项经济数据不及预期。这使得部分投资者认为经济下行风险较大,因此减少了对于周期股的配置。这些投资者的配置方向,明显向前期滞涨的行业与品种转移。

当前周期股的波动与调整,很大程度来源于市场对于经济预期的波动。经济数据造成预期波动是常态,其带来的市场波动甚至大幅超过基本面波动。研究历史数据发现,这种预期波动会形成反向布局的有利时机。从国内生产总值(GDP)数据看,2014年三季度经济超预期下行,但随后四季度推出降准,让市场燃起了做多热情。2017年二季度GDP数据超预期上行,又推动了本轮有色、周期的大行情。从工业增加值增速来看,2016年初、2017年二季度,工业增加值都出现过多次超预期下行或上行的状况。

从更深层次的原因来看,供给侧改革增强了中国经济的韧性,使得企业特别是龙头企业与上市公司的盈利能力有所恢复,这种恢复将不是一种暂时的变化,而会具有相当的可持续性。未来,周期性行业的集中度将提高,龙头企业获利的持续性增强,周期性减弱,价值性增加。

总体而言,虽然当前周期股仍然有调整空间,但由于经济韧性犹在,周期股未来的盈利持续性较高,因此不宜过度看空周期股。

(朱斌 作者系西南证券高级策略分析师)

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