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基建投资增速放缓 稳增长动能转换

2017-09-18 07:41:39   中国经济网

受基建投资回落的影响,固定资产投资增速也持续回落。“投资增速虽然回落较快,但当前经济的驱动力已由投资切换为消费,只要消费保持稳定,下半年经济增速不会明显回落。”张一平表示,除消费驱动力外,今年出口超预期对经济增长也有拉动作用。

章俊表示,基建投资对今年经济增长的托底作用并不明显。过去十几年数据表明,基建投资增速与房地产投资增速呈负相关。如果房地产投资增速下滑较明显,有关部门就会加大基建投资力度以对冲。从今年整体情况看,房地产投资下滑速度比较温和,所以有关部门不会刻意通过拉动基建投资来支撑经济增长。尤其是前三季度经济增长预期已超过6.5%的经济增长目标,最后一个季度可能不会再加大基建投资力度。

华融证券首席经济学家伍戈认为,作为熨平经济周期波动的财政政策手段,基建投资发力往往发生在内外需不足时。当前通过加大基建投资力度来弥补总需求缺口的必要性并不明显。

此前有观点称,今年以来中国经济增长仍是靠基础设施等投资拉动。国家发改委政研室主任、新闻发言人严鹏程表示,从客观数据和掌握的情况看,不支持这样的结论。中国经济结构正在不断调整优化,发展动能正在有序转换。

关于当前中国经济增长动力来自哪里,严鹏程表示,一是消费已成为经济增长主要推动力,对经济增长的支撑作用正进一步增强。在近几年持续扩大内需政策的作用下,我国居民消费潜力正在有序释放,消费升级势能持续增强,消费日渐成为经济增长的主要推动力。二是创新引领的作用日渐凸显,新动能正在加快成长。新产业、新业态、新模式、新产品不断涌现并茁壮成长,“互联网+”推动线上线下加快融合,特别是分享经济广泛渗透,跨境电商、在线医疗、共享单车等新服务模式层出不穷,这些都为我国经济持续健康发展注入新的强劲动力。三是供给侧结构性改革的效应正在逐步释放,市场供求关系明显改善。随着去产能的推进,一大批“僵尸企业”逐步退出,为行业内其他优质企业的发展腾出了空间,不仅优化了行业的资源配置和生产力布局,而且推动了行业供求结构的好转,企业经营状况和市场预期明显改善。

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