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8月M2增速创近两年新低 降准呼声又起

2017-09-18 07:31:40   中国经济网

每经记者 张寿林 每经编辑 贾运可

近日,央行公布的数据显示,8月末广义货币(M2)余额为164.52万亿元,同比增长8.9%,增速为近20个月新低。不过,社融存量同比增长13.1%,增速连续两个月高于13%。8月,人民币贷款增加1.09万亿元,超出市场预期。

值得注意的是,在M2增速不断创新低的背景下,市场上关于降准的呼声再次响起,有分析认为,目前央行主要通过“SLF+MLF+PSL”等工具为市场提供流动性,虽然流动性大致稳定,但金融机构获得流动性的成本较高。M2增速创新低加上银行超储率也处于历史低位,加大了资金结构性紧张的矛盾,需要适时降低存款准备金率。

不过,也有专家认为,8月M2增速放缓并不可怕,不能因为一时之需轻易调整货币政策。按照经济现状和市场预期,目前并没有进入可以降低存款准备金率、实施宽松货币政策的时期。

社融存量同比增13.1%

9月15日,央行公布的外汇占款数据显示,8月外汇占款余额为21.5万亿元,较7月末减少8.21亿元,为连续22个月下降,但降幅进一步收窄。交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员刘健认为,外汇占款降幅进一步收窄,主因是人民币稳步升值下,市场主体结汇意愿增加,资本流动基本平衡。短期内,受人民币升值预期影响,资本流动有望继续好转。

中国银行国际金融研究所高级研究员李佩珈认为,在外汇占款降幅收窄的背景下,8月末M2增速再创新低,超出市场预期。整体看,金融去杠杆政策进一步显效和货币供给整体偏紧是重要原因。三季度以来,央行货币政策加大了“削峰填谷”操作以确保流动性基本稳定,但实际看资金呈现净回笼态势。

《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,8月央行公开市场累计净回笼5200亿元,为五个月来首现月度净回笼。

民生银行首席研究员温彬分析指出,M2增速去年同期基数较高,也是8月M2增速降至8.9%的一个影响因素。数据显示,去年同期M2增速高达11.4%,比前一月提升了整整1.2个百分点。

在M2增速创新低的同时,社会融资规模则实现稳步增长。央行公布的数据显示,8月末,社融存量同比增长13.1%,连续两个月高于13%,比上年同期多186亿元。此外,当月人民币贷款增加1.09万亿元,比去年同期多增1433亿元,超出市场预期。

对此,九州证券首席经济学家邓海清认为,8月社融增量、人民币贷款数据超预期,主要在于政策层维稳经济,银行发放贷款意图明显。

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