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8月M2增速创新低 新增人民币贷款超预期
2017-09-16 08:21:43 中国经济网
中国人民银行15日数据显示,8月人民币贷款增加1.09万亿元,同比多增1433亿元。8月末,广义货币(M2)余额164.52万亿元,同比增长8.9%,增速分别比上月末和上年同期低0.3个和2.5个百分点。业内专家表示,M2去年同期基数较高,致使当月M2增速创新低。
“8月新增人民币贷款超出市场预期,银行继续加大对实体经济支持力度,比2014-2016年同期均值多出2700亿元。”中国民生银行首席研究员温彬表示,从结构看,住户部门新增贷款占比61%,较上月回落7个百分点。其中,中长期贷款增加4470亿元,占全部新增人民币贷款的41%,较上个月回落14个百分点;短期贷款占比20%,较上月提升7个百分点。
九州证券全球首席经济学家邓海清表示,居民户贷款多增的部分中,主要是短期贷款超预期,短期贷款往往是用于消费。但8月居民消费呈现出明显的下降趋势,两者之间出现背离。事实上,数据应把居民短期贷款与中长期贷款加总起来分析。2016年房地产、乘用车消费大幅增加,使居民贷款明显增加。2017年居民则可能通过短期贷款来增加杠杆,或是居民短期贷款大幅增长的原因。
“近日监管机构加大了对部分城市个人消费贷款、个人经营性贷款、信用卡透支、房抵贷等资金用途检查。”温彬表示,这也是防范短期消贷资金违规流向房地产市场,确保短期消费贷款平稳健康发展。
温彬表示,今年以来,在加强金融监管背景下,金融去杠杆效果逐步显现,同业业务增速放缓,货币派生效应减弱。同时M2去年同期基数较高,致使当月M2增速创历史新低。
“其实从环比来看,在信贷高增下,M2增量表现超季节性。”国金证券分析师边泉水认为,由于去年基数较高,M2增速表现依然较差。
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