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8月M2同比增长8.9%,降准呼声再起:货币政策仍将以稳为主

2017-09-16 06:16:42   中国经济网

9月15日,中国人民银行公布的数据显示,8月末,广义货币(M2)余额164.52万亿元,同比增长8.9%,创下新低,增速分别比上月末和上年同期低0.3个和2.5个百分点。

当月,人民币贷款增加1.09万亿元,大幅超出市场预期,同比多增1433亿元。8月新增贷款超预期,显示金融继续加大对实体经济支持力度。8月新增贷款比2014至2016年同期均值多出2700亿元,究其原因,业内分析认为,一方面是经济企稳带动企业信贷需求,另一方面是金融去杠杆推动表外融资转向表内。

M2再创新低引发了市场普遍关注。7月,M2同比增长9.2%,在此基础上,8月M2增速继续走低。交通银行金融研究中心高级研究员陈冀认为,M2继续回落受金融机构有价证券投资减速影响较大。

今年8月,信贷增长过万亿、财政存款减少3900亿,加之5月以来,人民币汇率对美元升值,跨境资金流动稳定,种种因素看起来都有利于M2增速保持稳定甚至反弹。

然而,今年以来,在加强金融监管背景下,金融去杠杆效果逐步显现,金融机构同业业务增速放缓,导致货币派生效应减弱。“存款类金融机构受负债端流动性压力影响,信贷增速保持的情况下,则可能大幅挤占有价证券投资的配置比例,进而削弱了通过此渠道进行的货币创造。”陈冀表示。

另一拉低M2增速的是基数效应。去年8月11.4%的M2增速,较去年7月10.2%的增速大幅提升1.2个百分点,也使得今年8月的M2增速受到了“基数效应”拖累。

随着M2增速的连续走低,市场降准呼声再起。中国民生银行首席研究员温彬认为,在当前人民币升值预期强化的背景下,降低法定存款准备金率不仅有空间,也有必要。

央行最近一次降准是在2016年3月,此后直到今年8月末,外汇占款累计减少2.3万亿元,为了对冲基础货币投放减少,央行主要通过中期借贷便利(MLF)等工具提供流动性累计超过4万亿元,保证了市场流动性需要。

温彬指出,这种操作存在两个不足:一是金融机构获得流动性的成本较高;二是中小金融机构不能直接从央行获得MLF等工具的支持。实施降准后,央行完全可以通过“减少MLF规模+正回购”的工具组合,防止可能出现的流动性过剩,继续保持稳健中性的货币政策基调不变。因此,适时降准对降低金融机构资金成本、进而降低实体经济部门融资成本有积极作用。

但从总体来看,货币政策仍将以稳为主。不少人担心,降准的信号意义太强,在今年经济企稳的背景下,此时降准似乎不合时宜。陈冀也认为,目前,货币政策目标始终基于为实体经济营造稳健的货币金融环境,稳定的流动性和利率环境也有助于直接融资市场融资功能的逐渐恢复和增强,有助于未来一段时间实体企业融资成本和融资可得性压力的缓解。同时,也有助于增强金融机构有价证券投资渠道的货币创造功能,使M2止跌企稳。因此,陈冀预计,短期货币政策仍将以稳为主。(经济日报-中国经济网记者 陈果静 )

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