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创业板套现旧模式失败 创蓝筹偏爱新经济企业

2017-09-17 07:06:37   中国经济网

深交民数据还显示,战略新兴产业业绩抢眼。创业板战略新兴产业公司广泛分布于新一代信息技术(167家)、生物(61家)、新材料(58家)、节能环保(57家)、高端装备制造(52家)、新能源(15家)、新能源汽车(3家)等领域。2017年上半年,战略新兴产业营业收入、净利润分别增长39.12%、18.32%,超越板块平均水平。剔除乐视网后,所有战略新兴行业均实现收入、净利润双增长。另外,节能环保、新能源产业营业收入同比增长超过50%;新能源汽车、节能环保产业净利润同比增长111.99%、51.28%。

市场的“痛点”

业绩与估值的改善并没有引来资本的蜂拥而入。据经济观察报记者了解,市场上对创业板的认知更多还停留在估值贵、业绩差、外延式并购影响在恶化甚至拖累业的。这些也是市场投资创业板的“痛点”。

不少投资人士看来,外延式并购粉饰业绩的恶果还没有结束。在吕晗看来,上一轮牛市期间,不少创业板公司已经习惯性的粉饰业绩,但是纸终究包不住火,2017年半年报大量公司业绩低于预期,反映出前两年并购重组注水的后果,未来两年会有更多这样的案例浮出水面,如果不能形成协同效应的并购重组终会变成负资产。少数并购重组只是为了不断的炒作概念和高位套利,监管从严之下,不断通过并购拉升股价的模式受到抑制。

广发证券在最新的中期业绩点评中写道,剔除外延式并购效应后,创业板中报业绩增速仅为11.3%,随着存量并购项目18年进入集中业绩对赌到期,仍将对业绩产生负面影响;而外延式并购规模仍在进一步下降,增量并购的业绩增厚也存在压力。历史上,创业板外延并购的高峰期是在2015年,考虑到业绩承诺期多为3年,大量对赌到期后将会对业绩产生压力。而由于监管趋严(并购新规+再融资新政),2017上半年创业板外延式并购规模仅为116亿元,同比大幅下降78%。因此在外延并购受限时,对业绩的增厚效应也在减弱。

对于创业板的投资,李坚总结,之前市场最关注的一直是对企业自身的并购行为。“和茅台的价值投资、国企的资本运作不一样,市场对创业板投资的关注点就是股东的行为,包括质押、定增、并购等等。并购本身是好的,但是一些企业乱并购,有些并购的标的不值那么多钱,私下通过各种方法把它做高,然后在二级市场抬高股价,这也成为这一年多管理层打击的对象。”

历史上创业板的高股价很大程度上依靠热点题材的重组并购来支撑,依赖直接减持、定增套利、自身炒股等方式来盈利,比较典型的案例包括乐视网、全通教育、蓝色光标等等。

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