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境外投资机构热捧 酒行业升级调整实现“逆袭”

2017-09-14 07:06:21   中国经济网

值得一提的是,看好白酒行业长期发展的并不只有QFII,多家白酒上市公司在二季度获得社保基金进驻或证金增持。

截至今年二季度,社保一一六组合最新进驻山西汾酒,截至二季度末持股318.90万股,占公司总股本的0.37%;社保四一四组合持有水井坊968.97万股,占公司总股本的1.98%,新进入前十大股东榜;证金公司则持有口子窖1130.87万股,占公司总股本的1.88%,新进公司前十大股东榜。

  上半年酒业成绩亮眼源于酒企改革、转型

亮眼的业绩给了QFII持仓的底气。2017年上市酒企半年报显示,多数酒企实现了正增长。白酒行业一线龙头企业贵州茅台、五粮液和洋河股份,都在高端白酒量价齐升的背景下,取得了较好的业绩。另外,沱牌舍得和酒鬼酒净利润同比增长169%和114%,增速明显。

贺琪、王楠分析认为,本轮白酒牛市的消费群体结构已不同以往,白酒的弹性在于商务需求,与实体经济呈正相关性。现阶段,实体经济有企稳迹象,制造业投资复苏,商务招待需求大幅增加,企业盈利能力修复明显,这些因素导致了高端白酒在餐饮端的消费需求旺盛,白酒基本面向好趋势不变。

同时,进入2017年,不仅白酒板块人气高涨,国内啤酒行业也已挥别过去三年的连续下滑态势,整体产量重回增长。国家统计局数据显示,2017年7月,国内啤酒总产量达515.5万千升,同比增长1.6%。今年1-7月,啤酒累计产量2781.7万千升,同比增长0.8%。

根据华润啤酒、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒、燕京啤酒和珠江啤酒这六家A股上市啤酒公司以及港股上市的华润啤酒所发布的2017年半年报,啤酒行业业绩整体出现反弹。其中仅重庆啤酒营收缓降2.82%,其余四家均实现营收与净利双双增长。其中,营收涨幅度最大的是珠江啤酒,其于报告期内录得营收18.31亿元,同比增长11.59%;其中华润啤酒上半年净利润11.70亿元,同比增长93.4%。

今年酒企缘何多数实现净利增长?据经济日报-中国经济网记者了解,自2016年以来,我国酒企通过改革,纷纷调整了经营策略和产品战略。不能适应的酒企或被收购、兼并,或关闭、转行,初步实现了市场出清,优胜劣汰。以白酒行业为例,目前已经进入了深度分化期。大洗牌下,中低端白酒市场的竞争将更加激烈,小酒厂或逐步被淘汰。

记者注意到,泸州老窖、五粮液、贵州茅台这三个白酒行业龙头纷纷对自身产品做出了调整。泸州老窖在中报中表示,他们积极发展健康养生白酒产业,发布了泸州老窖滋补大曲、茗酿等健康养生酒品,实现了对健康养生酒产品类型的全覆盖;积极发展新型中式白酒。引领中国白酒“时尚化”、“年轻化”、“个性化”的潮流,开发“巴蜀记忆”鸡尾酒、“桃花醉”配制酒等新型中式白酒产品。五粮液则以“改革、创新、转型、发展”为指导方针,持续推进“创新模式、提升品牌、整合资源”的发展战略。在不断提升优质品率同时持续推进粮食基地建设。扎实推进农业供给侧结构性改革,围绕创品牌、建基地、搞加工,推进一二三产业的融合发展。另外,实现翻倍增长的沱牌舍得也表示,这主要是因为公司产品结构调整优化,中高档酒占比提高拉低了企业整体营业成本。净利润增长的主要原因在于中高档酒的销量增加。中高档酒的占比从去年四季度起不断提高,这也影响了公司营业成本整体下降。

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