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机构预测8月投资或略有放缓

2017-09-12 07:08:21   中国经济网

国家统计局将于近期发布8月份规模以上工业生产月度报告、固定资产投资月度报告、社会消费品零售总额月度报告等多项宏观经济运行数据。《经济参考报》记者综合多方预测,8月工业增加值将比上月有所回升;社会消费品零售总额增速将保持平稳;由于房地产投资呈下降趋势,8月投资增速将小幅下滑。

多家研究机构在报告中预测8月工业增加值将有所回升。兴业证券发布报告指出,7月生产数据偏弱很大程度上是受到负面天气影响,8月高频发电煤耗维持高位,污染行业限产使得部分生产提前,高炉开工率也维持高位,可能进一步推高工业生产。而且近几个月产销率维持高位,也反映出8月份的工业生产可能相对7月有所反弹。

招商证券首席宏观分析师谢亚轩表示,8月制造业采购经理指数(PMI)超预期反弹至51.7,制造业生产呈现淡季不淡的特征。从高频数据看,8月电厂耗煤量和粗钢产量均保持较快增长。

中信证券首席宏观经济学家褚建芳表示,一方面,由于7月份制造业投资回落到比较低的水平,单月增速只有1.3%,预计8月份将强势反弹,从而拉动固定资产投资回升,进而拉动工业增加值增速回升;另一方面,8月份工业品价格大幅反弹,将会提高企业的生产和存货意愿,也有助于工业增加值增速的回升。因此,预计8月份工业增加值增长6.5%,比7月提高0.1个百分点。

针对即将公布的投资数据,谢亚轩预测其增速将继续下滑。他表示,8月整体水泥价格偏弱,加之台风等气象灾害的影响,对建筑业施工造成较大影响。交通银行首席经济学家连平也认为,抛开投资相关的钢材建材价格波动以外,投资增长动力趋弱,预计8月固定资产投资累计增速下降至8%。

中信证券的观点略有不同。褚建芳预计8月份固定资产投资增长8.4%,比7月份回升0.1个百分点。其中,制造业投资增速将大幅反弹。目前制造业资本开支扩张的速度持续低于需求的扩张速度,制造业投资增速持续低于名义GDP增速已有20个月左右,随着经济需求的回暖,制造业投资将会持续反弹。同时,房地产限购政策影响将逐渐发酵,随着房地产销售的冷却,将逐渐传递到房地产投资端,预计1至8月份房地产开发投资增速将回落至7.5%左右。由于2017年税收收入和土地收入均大幅好于去年,预计下半年基建投资增速仍然会维持在15%至16%左右。

中金公司首席经济学家梁红也认为,目前中国制造业产能投资仍颇有空间,尤其是考虑到迄今为止总体产能扩张仍相对保守。一是原材料及重工业行业资产回报率已大幅改善、并可以承受一些优质产能的释放;二是环保督查可能会成为中长期的政策重点、而中国在这些方面的投资可能仍有“欠账”要还;三是长期来看,消费升级和制造业升级相关需求具有可持续性;四是农业供给侧改革给农产品价格带来的“通缩”影响已几近尾声——部分主要农产品价格开始温和上升,可能会带动相关行业投资增长。

针对消费数据,多位专家预测8月份增速将保持平稳态势。连平表示,从房地产销售下滑、汽车零售缓慢增长来看,消费增长的后劲不足,但家电销售创新高、暑假旅游和避暑旅游火爆带动消费增长。预计8月消费增长10.5%,基本运行平稳。

褚建芳表示,商品房成交面积增速持续下滑将逐渐传导至家具家电、建筑装潢材料等相关消费品的零售,这将成为短期影响社会消费品零售总额增速的核心变量;另一方面,8月份经济增速有可能因为制造业投资增速反弹而反弹,会给消费形成很强的支撑,预计8月份社会消费品零售总额增长10.4%,与上月持平。

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