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汇率趋稳 央行接连调整两政策

2017-09-12 07:07:24   中国经济网

中国人民银行金融研究所所长孙国峰11日表示,近日,人民银行调整了外汇风险准备金政策和对境外金融机构境内存放执行正常准备金率的政策,将外汇风险准备金征收比例降为零,并取消对境外金融机构境内存放准备金的穿透式管理。业内人士表示,此举意味着在人民币汇率水平趋于均衡、贬值预期有所弱化的情况下,监管部门此前出台的逆周期宏观审慎管理措施已回归中性。

2015年9月,央行正式宣布,对开展代客远期售汇业务的金融机构收取外汇风险准备金,即从2015年10月15日起,开展代客远期售汇业务的金融机构(含财务公司)应交存外汇风险准备金,准备金率暂定为20%。业内人士表示,在2015年人民币贬值压力较大的背景下,央行此举意在增加客户远期购汇的成本和难度,抑制恐慌性和投机性买盘,从而打压人民币贬值预期。而在2016年1月,央行宣布,自2016年1月25日起,对境外金融机构在境内金融机构存放执行正常存款准备金率政策。央行负责人当时指出,对境外金融机构境内存放执行正常存款准备金率,建立了对跨境人民币资金流动进行逆周期调节的长效机制,是完善宏观审慎政策框架的一项重要措施,有助于抑制跨境人民币资金流动的顺周期行为。

“这两项政策都是在前两年人民币汇率出现波动、资本流动呈现一定顺周期性的背景下出台的宏观审慎管理措施,考虑到当前市场环境已发生较大变化,上述两项政策有必要进行调整。”孙国峰表示。

9月11日,人民币兑美元中间价报6.4997,连续第11个交易日上涨,人民币贬值预期也有明显弱化。孙国峰表示,今年以来人民币对美元汇率整体呈现升值态势,对一篮子货币基本稳定,这主要是我国经济持续向好等基本面因素在汇率上的反映。“在人民币汇率水平趋于均衡的同时,市场预期趋于理性,跨境资本流动和外汇供求都更加平衡。在市场环境已转向中性的情况下,有必要调整前期为抑制外汇市场顺周期波动而出台的逆周期宏观审慎管理措施,也相应回归中性,以强化外汇市场价格发现功能,提高市场流动性,更好地服务于实体经济,促进经济持续、协调、平稳发展。”他说。

值得注意的是,11日,在岸人民币和离岸人民币汇率均有明显下行。知名外汇专家韩会师表示,央行此举背后所反映的监管态度的调整,可能会激发部分市场参与者做空人民币的动力,从而对人民币过快升值产生一定抑制作用。

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