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央广《王冠红人馆》财经报告:德国大选渐入佳境,默克尔连任胜算几何?

2017-09-13 17:21:29   央广网

默克尔与竞选对手马丁·舒尔茨在进行电视辩论

相比之下,舒尔茨的言论十分尖锐,更像是德国人下班后在酒吧里聊天式的用语,虽然很接地气,但格局略显不足,这也让大家对于其真正的办事状态持怀疑态度;而默克尔在辩论过程中充分展现出政坛领导人的气概,更显成熟。正如英国广播公司评论所说,默克尔并非以高超的口才著称,也不喜欢公开辩论,但她这次看上去很放松,能令人信服并毫不费力地化解对手的攻击。

 三、前瞻--默克尔积累超强人气,连任几率更大

在5日的辩论结束后,德国电视一台发布的民调显示,默克尔在多数问题上的表现都比舒尔茨获得更多支持。总体表现上,55%的德国人满意默克尔的表现,35%支持舒尔茨。具体在移民和难民问题上,44%认为默克尔可信,39%认为舒尔茨可信;国际事务上,61%认为默克尔可信,30%认为舒尔茨可信;涉及内政的劳动力市场问题上,45%信任默克尔,40%支持舒尔茨。

由此可见,德国民众还是比较支持默克尔的。尽管默克尔既没有拥有法国总统马克龙充满朝气的偶像气质,也没有类似特朗普般特立独行的个性,还不具备像奥巴马"首位黑人总统"这样足够的概念,却能够从05年到现在连续稳坐总理位置并可能继续连任,必然有其充足的连任底气和道理。

 经济、就业形势向好。在默克尔开始第一个总理任期时,有500万德国人失业,如今只剩250万。德国最新公布的8月失业率为5.7%,创下1990年德国统一以来的最低纪录。除了失业人数大幅下降,德国还实现经济持续增长。2016年德国财政盈余高达237亿欧元,为1990年两德统一以来的最高水平。有观点认为,德国经济正处于2008年全球金融危机以来的最好时期。

根据欧盟官方统计数据,按购买力平价计算的人均GDP指数,以当年欧盟28国平均值为100的话,德国2005年为124,2016年为123,而同期法国则从111下降到105,英国从117下降到108。也就是说,这12年中德国经济增幅一直高于欧盟其他主要国家。

与欧洲其他大国相比,德国经济不仅总量最大,而且开放度更高。根据欧盟统计,2005年德国出口有64.6%是欧盟内贸易,而2016年这一比例下降到58.6%,降幅达到6%。法国同期从63.6%下降到59.4%,降幅4.2%。也就是说,德国外贸增长正在从欧盟"内生动力"转向世界经济的"外生动力"。

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