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央广《王冠红人馆》财经报告:德国大选渐入佳境,默克尔连任胜算几何?
漂亮的执政成绩让民众对默克尔心存期待,这也成为其可能连任的最重要砝码之一。
刚柔并存。默克尔被视为世界上最有权势的领导人之一。作为一向以严肃态度示人的女强人,默克尔常常让许多德国人想到"铁娘子"撒切尔夫人。然而,她还具有女性柔和的特质。比如当难民小女孩哭着向默克尔说:"我的妈妈还没有来,我还要想见到我的爸爸,他们如何能够进来?你能不能让他们来?"默克尔抱着她并真诚地告诉她,自己突破不了法规,无能为力,但希望女孩能够回去和家人团聚。此外,默克尔在私下里十分随和,喜欢回家做饭,黏着老公,有空玩玩手机。这一切在德国民众看来,颇具人情味,好感度自然提升。
德国政坛求稳。在默克尔执政期间,英法已分别经历了4位首相与4位总统,意大利领导层有6人先后担任总理。同时,法国的马克龙、加拿大的特鲁多等人的上任也显示出从政年轻化的趋势。而作为整个欧洲"主心骨"、"定心丸"的德国,此时还是需要有一个冷静、严谨的领袖来维系其一贯的稳定状态并尽可能地推动整个国家向前发展,默克尔无疑是较为合适的人选。
由此看来,默克尔连任的几率相对更大。
四、总结
作为欧盟老大哥,此次德国大选牵一发动全身。默克尔的连任能否顺利实现值得期待。而值得思考的是,默克尔此次还明确提出要在欧元区实行统一的财长制度,这实际上相当于对所有主权国家进行了部分财权没收和上交。尽管马克龙一定程度上表示支持,但这项制度能在多大的空间获得推广,又会有多大的反弹,不得而知。也许,未来大选结束之后的博弈才刚刚开始。
更多精彩内容,敬请关注央广《王冠红人馆》节目和微信公号。
央广《王冠红人馆》舆情课题组 宋佳伶
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