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科大讯飞估值“论战”

2017-09-08 21:26:47   中国经济网

在薛云奎看来,衡量一家企业的产出既可以采用净利润指标,也可以采用净现金指标。前者依循应计会计原则,后者依循现金会计原则。所以,对企业估值如果采用净利润指标,通常采用市盈率;如果采用净现金指标,则通常采用市现率。

亚马逊因其会计政策稳健,而且不断致力于尝试新的技术,所以报表盈利水平一直不高,市盈率也因此居高不下。但如果用市现率来衡量,亚马逊当前的市值却并不离奇,约为27倍。

与亚马逊和京东相比,科大讯飞的表现却是背道而驰。数据显示,2014-2016年,科大讯飞经营活动产生的现金流量净额分别为4.2亿元、5.16亿元和2.99亿元,占同期净利润的比重分别为110.82%、121.41%和61.78%,公司造血能力有所衰退。根据Wind数据统计,截至2017年9月7日,科大讯飞的市现率(经营现金流TTM)为3256倍,市盈率(TTM)为241倍。

争论背后 有“机”可寻?

采用现金估值还是利润估值已是投资者争论多年的话题,但其初衷均是期望为评估决策提供依据。

财报分析作为工具虽不是万能的,但也不是毫无用处,公司股价或许并不完全取决于会计利润,但长期而言会计利润对股价变动仍有解释力,而基于现金的分析方法同样不失为一种应用工具。

一个相对普遍的共识是,高市现率通常意味着一家公司正在以一个较高的价格交易,但并没有产生足够的现金流去支撑高股价,而低市现率则表明公司经营过程中产生着充足的现金,但这些现金还没有反映在股价之上。从市现率的角度出发,亚马逊和京东的整体估值并非不可理喻。

值得思考的是,以市现率作为参考指标,是否能够发掘出尚未得到充分认识的公司?

以A股市场为例,根据Wind数据统计,截至2017年9月6日,按市现率由低到高排序,依次剔除净利润(扣非后)低于50%分位值、市盈率高于50%分位值的标的,排名前10位的公司分别为三一重工、徐工机械、供销大集、鄂尔多斯、铜陵有色、锡业股份、江苏有线、深天马A、首旅酒店、中国武夷。

而由此引发的进一步思考是,是否存在利润指标与现金指标均处于相对低位的公司?

2015年,广证恒生曾发布策略投资报告,依照股息率由高至低排序,筛选依次剔除市现率、市净率和市盈率三项指标排名低于25%分位值的标的公司。

根据报告,截至2015年8月27日,在不考虑行业重叠的情况下,排名前列的公司包括上汽集团、深高速、福耀玻璃、农业银行、大秦铁路、中国神华、鲁西化工、雅戈尔、中国石化、华域汽车。

自2016年9月7日至今,上述公司涨幅分别为61.47%、25.83%、70.8%、33.33%、56.29%、80.38%、116.08%、17.47%、34.03%和61.63%,同期沪深300指数涨幅约为15.22%。

他山之石可以攻玉,时至今日,上述名单已然发生变化。经统计,截至9月6日,按股息率由高至低顺序,依次剔除市现率、市净率和市销率三项指标排名低于25%分位值的标的,在不考虑行业重叠的情况下,排名前10的公司分别为中国神华、金地集团、上汽集团、梅花生物、农业银行、森马服饰、宁沪高速、中国石化、鲁泰A、厦门空港。

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