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科大讯飞估值“论战”

2017-09-08 21:26:47   中国经济网

然而,与体量扩张相伴的是资产周转率的逐年下降。2016年,科大讯飞总资产周转率由上市之初的0.59下滑至0.35,存货周转率由16.3下滑至3.58,固定资产周转率由6.08下滑至3.46。

与融资规模相比,科大讯飞盈利能力也随即失色。统计数据显示,自上市以来,科大讯飞累计实现净利润22.67亿元,累计现金分红6.76亿元,公司净资产收益率(扣除/平均)一路下滑,由上市之初的17.25%下滑至3.83%。

文末,薛云奎总结道,“科大讯飞在经营层面是一家快速增长但含金量不高的公司。在管理层面,是一家扩张很快但效率低下的公司;在财务层面,是一家擅长募资但却不擅赚钱的公司;在业绩层面,是一家大手笔花钱但股东回报率低下的公司。”

现金or利润?

薛云奎的质疑很快得到回应,8月30日,科大讯飞在深交所投资者互动平台上表示,“按照作者(薛云奎)的观点和逻辑,就不会有亚马逊、特斯拉、京东等这样的企业了,以亚马逊为例,其亏损近20年,估值却达4800亿美元,就是其广大投资者对其战略和落地执行能力的认可。”

上述言论随即招来反驳,“科大讯飞与亚马逊,根本就是两个完全不同的企业。一个是人工智能,一个是在线零售。无论是商业模式还是公司规模,二者都差异巨大。不知为何科大讯飞却要比肩亚马逊?而且,还把特斯拉和京东也放在一起?”薛云奎如是说。

亚马逊于2004年在美国纳斯达克上市,2005年实现营业收入84.9亿美元,净利润3.59亿美元。2016年,亚马逊实现营业收入1359.87亿美元,同比增长27%;实现净利润23.71亿美元,同比增长298%。

事实上,自上市以来,亚马逊仅有2012年和2014年两年出现亏损,亏损金额分别为3900万美元和2.41亿美元,连续20年亏损的说法应是无从谈起。

更为重要的是,上市至今,亚马逊经营活动产生的现金流量净额逐年增加,公司实际现金流入远超业绩表现。

上市之初的2005年,亚马逊经营活动产生的现金流量净额约为7.33亿美元,约占同期净利润的204.18%;2015年和2016年分别为119.2亿美元和164.43亿美元,分别是同期净利润金额的20倍和6.94倍。即便是在亏损年份,亚马逊现金流量净额也分别高达41.8亿美元和68.42亿美元。

自上市以来,京东依旧在亏损之中,2014-2016年的净利润分别为-49.96亿元、-93.78亿元和-38.07亿元,但经营活动产生的现金流金额同样高于净利润,公司自身造血能力尚可。2014-2016年,京东经营活动产生的现金流量净额分别为10.15亿元、-18.12亿元和87.67亿元。

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