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价在量先 A股热点轮动加快

2017-09-08 08:21:46   中国经济网

从资金流向上来看,资金短炒的动力较强,连续多日出现尾盘净流入、开盘净流出的格局。据数据,8月25日以来的10个交易日中,共有6个交易日呈现出尾盘资金回流状态,不过开盘资金均呈现净流出格局。昨日高位滞涨情况下,资金呈现出开盘和尾盘双双净流出格局。

不过,由于前期“国家队”介入金融股较为明显,二季度,共有15家上市银行的前十大股东中出现了证金公司的身影;且权重最大的国有五大行的增持力度较大。由此来看,金融股支撑下指数的空间不大,资金于是开始抓小放大,尝试进行相对更为轻松的题材博弈,此时市场的活跃程度,关键看资金介入中小创的程度,而非继续高位介入前期已经明显上涨的周期股和滞涨的金融股。

创业板当前的活跃,也是牛市趋势确立之中的必经阶段。华泰证券金工研究员林晓明指出,随着牛市趋势的清晰,市场风险偏好会显著提升,弱势板块会有补涨行情。在2012年底至2016年初的上一轮行情中,小票主导、TMT主导,主要指数从小到大依次见底,2012年创业板指见底,2013年中小板指见底,2014年主板指数见底。慢牛走过一年半之后,到2014年中期,趋势越来越明朗,市场风险偏好提升,会带来弱势板块的补涨,以及其后全面普涨行情。本轮行情由大票主导、周期性板块主导,2017年7月份的下跌大概率是创业板最后的调整,当前正处在补涨行情之中。

关注题材热行情存变局

当前资金的谨慎情绪,一方面是大盘滞涨、量能不足情况下的自然反应,另一方面也是四季度变局来临之前,资金的试探和布局期。

海通证券指出,今年前8个月,消费、周期、金融、成长已轮番表现。四季度逐渐临近,近几年年末市场总会有一些意料之外的变化,如2012年底的银行,2013年8月至9月的自贸区,2014年末的一带一路、券商,以及2015年、2016年末的举牌行情等。预计今年四季度异军突起的行业有三个特征:低涨幅、低配置、政策或事件催化,建议重视券商、建筑、地产。

实际上昨日地产股、建筑股已经有所表现,但是上行动力是否充足仍然有待考察。

总体而言,热点的不断接力,说明市场参与热情犹在,结构性机会仍是主导。中信建投证券指出,操作上,仍应尽量避免追高,寻找超跌股或前期经过调整的热点股适当潜伏应是主策略,追着热点的追涨杀跌将面临较大的风险。

华泰证券指出,成长性行业取代大盘蓝筹股成市场焦点。这主要系去杠杆等监管政策对股市的压力最大阶段已经过去,近期重组、再融资等政策悄然变化,将带来市场风险偏好的恢复。预期股市最困难的时候已经过去了。在这个阶段,布局真正的高成长股,能给投资者最大的回报,真正的高成长股主要诞生于环保、科技、消费升级、产业转移等新兴领域。

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