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港股为何普遍比A股便宜

2017-09-07 07:36:44   中国经济网

一家香港股市房地产企业,每股收益1.286港元,每股净资产8.768港元,每股派息0.51港元,这样的一家公司在A股市场应该定价多少钱?本栏找到了一个数据比较接近的A股公司招商蛇口,2016年度每股收益1.21元,每股净资产7.07元,每股派息0.5元,最新股价18.85元。

现在来说这家香港股市的房地产公司合景泰富,三项数据均比招商蛇口略强一点点,但是它的最新股价只有8.1港元,股价只是招商蛇口的零头,不足一半。就算是这个价格,也还是创了十年新高之后的股价。这是不是一个个案?不是,绝大多数香港上市公司,其估值水平都较A股更低,就连绝对的蓝筹股中国石油,A股的股价8.13元,但是在港股也只需要6港元。

当然,事情也不是绝对的,例如中国平安在A股和H股的股价就差不多,同时也有海螺水泥、宁沪高速、潍柴动力三家公司的港股报价还较A股略高。但这并非主流,绝大多数的A股公司都比港股公司估值更高,这个现象虽然长期存在,但显然是不合理的。

如果说以前两边股市是割裂的,那么这个现象还比较容易理解,咱们的投机性较强,公司上市需要审批,股票供应相对不足。但是现在有了沪港通、深港通,不少券商还能提供直接购买香港股票的经纪业务。同时A股市场新股发行速度保持高速,供应不足的现象已经不再明显,那么两边估值的差异,就得从投资者身上找原因。

是不是香港股市估值过低不合理?这个可能性并不高,因为香港股市是一个开放度极高的市场,只要股价水平偏低,具备投资价值,那么全世界的投资者都可以来香港股市买入股票。即香港股市的估值有可能偏低,但不可能偏低太多。

A股市场则不同,A股市场投资者众多,且以资金量较小的散户为主,散户投资者虽然个体资金量不大,但是整体资金实力绝对是A股市场的主流,有统计称个人投资者的资金量占到整个A股市场资金量的96%,这个数据不一定准确,但是以个人投资者为主的客观事实不会有问题。

散户投资者最大的特点是炒股就要养成长期习惯,不管是买什么股票,反正不能空仓,就算明知道股市需要调整,也要买入医药白酒等所谓的防御型品种。大量的散户投资者长期满仓操作,就导致了整个A股市场形成了厌恶下跌,即使是跌势也要找到能够上涨的品种。这样的投资氛围下,A股市场形成了一个逻辑,即股价估值合理就是买入的理由。

本栏认为,这样的逻辑并不正确,没有较低的股价,也就不会有真正意义上的价值投资。高股价的结果就是投资者只能通过投机博取差价获利,而不能依靠上市公司现金分红维持稳定的投资收益,A股市场要想真正成熟,必须要让上市公司利润增长的幅度超过股价上涨的幅度,并逐步降低估值水平,这样才能具备价值投资的基础。

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