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目前来看,利率继续上行空间并不大。首先,经历前期上行,目前实际利率水平不低;其次,今年海外债市收益率反而有所下行,内外利差较高,在人民币恢复升值的情况下,源于境外机构的投资需求在上升;再者,利率过快上行,会增加实体融资难度和成本,最终会伤害实体经济;最后,利率显著波动可能导致前期积累风险集中释放,有违有序处置风险的政策初衷。
由此可见,债券市场依然处于上有顶、下有底的格局。在新的主线出现之前,流动性波动成为主导市场短期运行的关键因素,当低超储遇上央行精细化调控,资金面反复出现“预期差”,可能仍是市场波动和机会的主要来源。
从更长时间来看,利率终将回归基本面主导,需求是决定利率走势的关键。倘若在供给侧改革持续推进的同时,需求侧出现持续的扩张,将带动价格明显上涨及产能投资复苏,政策进一步收紧理由充分,利率向上的空间将被打开;反之,随着严监管和去杠杆对经济的反作用不断积累,并最终导致需求明显下滑,政策松动的契机将出现,利率下行的障碍将被扫除。
总而言之,政策初心未改,利率难涨难跌,过激的多、空观点注定要遭遇“打脸”,继续等待需求侧趋势明朗方是明智之举。(张勤峰)
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