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啤酒产量连降3年后重回增长 行业复苏还是触底反弹?

2017-09-07 07:27:16   中国经济网

“从我们的观察来看,从去年8月到今年8月,行业数据呈现可延续性的增长。各主要企业的半年报也可验证啤酒销量在逐步回升,可以证明行业是在朝着正向发展。”该人士补充道。

不过有业内人士认为,尽管2017年上半年行业出现复苏,但只能视其为经历3年下滑后的“触底反弹”。啤酒产业专家方刚对记者表示,啤酒行业经历两年多下滑后,下滑空间已经不大,如今出现反弹非常正常。

中国酒业协会常务副秘书长兼啤酒分会秘书长何勇亦此前亦公开表示,2017年上半年啤酒产量的小幅回升是前3年触底如今反弹的结果。

●业内看好重回增长

半月前,《每日经济新闻》记者所在的某啤酒行业微信群内,有行业人士就上半年啤酒业回升原因做了一次小范围调查。其中,不少行业人士均认为,今年夏季炎热天气较多、平均气温较高是导致啤酒企业业绩较好的主要原因。

前述酒企内部人士认为,今年的天气状况对业绩有一定助益,但并非明显利好因素。从各大酒企目前的产品结构来看,易拉罐产品销量增长尤其明显,中高端产品有较大提升,精酿等个性化产品有增长但总量并不突出。由此看来,主要是啤酒消费场景从原来的即饮为主向非即饮等多元化场景拓展,导致啤酒产销量的上升。

他还表示,由于啤酒在一些经济发达省份的销量上涨较为明显,宏观经济环境的改善,也是拉动行业回升的因素之一。

眼下已入秋,啤酒传统旺季正慢慢离去,酒企的良好态势是否可持续?前述酒企内部人士认为,“如果各主要酒企8月份的产销数据能够保持同比相对稳定,甚至是将下滑维持在1个百分点之内,基本可以证明行业正处于正常回暖过程中。”

方刚认为,啤酒行业出现反弹,主要有四方面原因:一是行业本身,经历了两年多下滑,下滑空间已不大;第二,白酒回暖时间点要早于啤酒,而其下滑时间也是先于啤酒,两者时间节点虽不一致,但趋势应是一致的;第三是天气因素,今年总体来说天气较好,对啤酒销量有着正面影响;第四,包括白酒、食品、饮料等行业,整个经济都有回暖趋势。

在预测下半年走向时,方刚认为,“下半年的销量可能会下降,但今年整年下降的可能性不大。”

对此,业内某啤酒企业高管告诉记者,目前啤酒行业反弹时间还不够长,总体来看应该不会再出现持续性的下滑状况,但想回到2004年到2014年的高速增长也不大可能。

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