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股指“金九”行情蓄势待发

2017-09-06 10:41:52   中国经济网

随着人民币汇率的企稳,甚至从年初的贬值预期转向当下的升值预期,这将大幅改善我国资金外流的状况,并吸引国外资金流入国内。最为直观的现象就是,随着人民币汇率的走稳,国际资本也在通过不同渠道加持人民币资产,最明显的就是境外机构在大量增持人民币国债。此外,国际资本也在大幅增配中国的股票市场,国际资本已成为A股市场中一股不可忽视的力量。随着人民币汇率的企稳回升,再叠加A股市场投资价值的日益凸显,境外机构加仓境内股市的倾向日益明显。一直以来,以深港通和沪股通为代表的北上资金的变动情况都向市场释放出重要的信号。近期我们也观察到,北上资金维持着持续高速入场的状态,最近一周外资通过沪股通账户累计流入85.87亿元(前一周为21.17亿元),通过深股通账户累计流入31.28亿元(前一周为22.16亿元)。可以预想,近期A股市场的持续走强,与人民币升值带来的增量资金不无关系。我们认为在人民币汇率升值预期短期难以扭转的背景下,接下来一段时间中国A股将继续能够享受这种“新兴市场溢价”。

市场流动性最紧张的时刻已过

今年二季度,货币政策的收紧及金融监管的趋严一度成为影响我国金融市场两个最大的外生性变量,并在一定时期内造成了股市、债市、大宗商品的集体重挫。当前来看,我们认为上述变量对市场的影响正在逐渐减弱,流动性和金融监管边际最紧的时候大概率已经过去。不管是货币政策收紧还是金融监管延续,其对金融市场预期冲击最大的阶段也已经过去。

从货币政策的角度考虑,尽管我们依旧认为三、四季度货币政策仍会维持一个紧平衡的基调,但货币政策不会再进一步收紧。主要基于:其一,我国市场利率近半年来的上升实质上已先于美联储加息,而且债券市场所反映的加息幅度也要大于美联储加息的幅度。通过观察中美1年期国债收益率的利差可以发现,从年初到现在,两者的相对利差已经扩大了50BP左右。如果以25BP作为美联储每次加息的幅度,这实际上意味着我国今年已经变相加息4次。我们认为,即便是在今年9月美联储正式启动“缩表”计划,其对中国货币政策的影响也十分有限。其二,美元指数在欧美货币同向缩紧过程中,仍有可能进一步阶段性下行,人民币贬值的压力明显缓解,这有助于减缓中国资本外流的压力。人民币汇率端对货币政策的掣肘降低,进而也为货币政策提供较大的空间。对于金融监管而言,从年中的金融工作会议和中央政治局会议所释放的信号看,下半年金融监管将会延续下去,但在节奏上将会更加注重政策的协调性,这其实就是一个重大的利好。

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