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上市公司跨界锂电热潮不减 高位入场标的业绩承诺存隐忧
2017-09-05 07:32:26 中国经济网
我国锂电行业技术发展迅速,以锂电池为例,2012年汽车电池的密度大概120~140Wh/kg,今年200Wh/kg的产品应用的已经比较多。真锂研究首席分析师墨柯称,“电池制造能力方面,中国企业进步神速。不过,我们的产品现在的良品率还比较低。这需要时间去弥补,再过一两年,中国企业在这方面也能赶超。”
虽然锂电行业被资本、机构、专家等看好,但随着各路资本涌入锂电行业,整个行业也出现了非理性行为。以锂电池为例,随着新能源汽车市场的高速增长,国内对动力锂电池需求空前旺盛。在此背景下,国内企业蜂拥而上大幅度扩张锂电池产能,导致市场面临着产品质量鱼龙混杂、低端产能过剩的困境。
有行业专家曾对《每日经济新闻》表示:“目前,我国动力电池企业的合计产能已经超过了170Gwh/年,该产能已经是需求量的7倍以上,如果按照电动大客车与电动乘用车1:10的市场销售比例来看,170Gwh大约可以满足年产50万辆电动大客车和500万辆电动乘用车的总需求,而根据我国新能源汽车发展规划测算,这可能是我国2025年后的目标。”
随着锂电池产能扩张,上游锂电材料公司也进入产能翻倍扩张时代。
上海劲邦股权投资管理有限公司合伙人王荣进认为,这些公司拼命扩大产能,很容易出现产能过剩的情况。从目前看,结构性产能过剩非常明显。前两年行业非常火爆,产品供不应求,甚至有提现金上门抢货的情况,这种场景今后不太可能会出现了。
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