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国有大行中报释放两信号:利润增速回暖 资产质量现拐点

2017-09-03 09:15:51   中国经济网

农行则实现了不良贷款双降。“今年上半年,我们不良贷款率、逾期率都双双下降,尤其是新发生不良率下降比较快,再加上结构调整,还有不良贷款的处置取得的成效,所以上半年农业银行的不良额和不良率都双降,不良额降了24个亿,不良率降了0.08个百分点。”赵欢称。

虽然下半年经济仍存有诸多不确定性,然而,当前全球经济的复苏还是存在着不确定性,市场的预期敏感多变;国内随着供给侧改革的深化,过剩产能行业加速出清,企业信用风险持续暴露。银行资产质量能否有望进一步向好?

如作为不良贷款的重要观察指标,交通银行逾期贷款和逾期90天以上贷款实现“两逾双降”:减值贷款率为1.51%,较年初下降0.01个百分点;逾期贷款余额较年初减少人民币60.26亿元,占比较年初下降0.30个百分点;逾期90天以上贷款余额较年初减少人民币38.59亿元,占比较年初下降0.22个百分点。

“信贷资产质量是管出来的。”易会满称,2013年以来的新增贷款,不良率只有0.83%,这个水平是控制的比较好的。通过存量移位,2013年以后新增贷款占比为74%。另外,银行近年的不良贷款处置能力在增强,近三年中,工行每年的不良贷款处置总额都在2000亿左右,今年上半年就处置911亿不良贷款,致使不良贷款额上升50多亿。目前工行每年用以核销贷款的金额为650亿到700亿,正因为工行强大的财务能力才能够支撑目前1.57%的不良贷款水平。

 中间业务收入下滑

上半年,工农中建四大行非利息收入均呈现下降态势。工行非利息收入1112.29亿元,下降9.9%。其中,手续费及佣金收入下降6.2%。建行非利息收入1025.34亿元,较上年同期减少193.28 亿元,降幅为15.86%。中行非利息收入上半年,集团实现非利息收入831.94亿元,同比减少238.43亿元,下降22.28%。农行实现手续费及佣金净收入424.65 亿元,同比减少86.43亿元,下降16.9%。

中金所研究院首席经济学家赵庆明认为,银行业中间业务收入增长不甚理想的主因:一是在国家相关部门治理乱收费、降低企业负担的政策影响下,银行业大幅度取消和降低了收费项目,自然影响中间业务收入;二是中间业务收入考核机制有所调整,基层行将原属于贷款利率上浮部分的中收还原到了利息收入之中,这也影响了中收增长。随着去年下半年以来我国宏经济企稳回升,银行不良贷款压力有明显下降,从这个角度看,银行盈利能力在增强。但是由于低通胀低增长,我国银行业高成长也已经成为过去式,中低速发展将成为常态。

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