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2017上半年智能投顾行业发展状况报告:野蛮生长 喜忧并存

2017-08-16 17:59:34   中国经济网

  1伪智能投顾

智能投顾的持续快速发展,注定意味着市场面临鱼龙混杂的局面。按照严格的智能投顾定义,智能投顾必须是自动化的,必须是算法驱动的。这是因为从智能投顾的起源初衷上看,之所以要强调自动化和算法,就是基于机器理性可以战胜人类行为非理性的假设。而从结果上看,凡是智能投顾,其为用户提供的投资建议,必须是“个性化”的,是“千人千面”。

目前市场上的很多技术驱动型创业公司,的确严格遵循了这样的初衷,其差距无非是在于算法的成熟度和个性化的水平上。但是,除此之外,市场上很多打着智能投顾旗号的,其实很多都是伪智能投顾、假智能投顾。

举个例子,很多基金公司的所谓智能投顾,就是将自己家的几只基金,根据其投资标的的大概风险程度,分成几等,然后推给投资者。这绝对不是我们所定义的智能投顾,因为它不符合我们关于智能投顾的定义。

伪智能投顾的本质仍然是基金(或者其他投资类别产品)的营销行为,其本质无非是打着智能投顾的旗号销售投资产品。

  2政策风险

即便智能投顾企业能够真正实现算法驱动,但在目前的条件之下,仍面临着政策风险。这种风险在去年以及今年上半年已经有所体现,而其核心就是可能会涉嫌证监会所不允许的无牌照基金代销。

“未经证监会注册,擅自从事公募证券投资基金销售业务的,证监会将依法对相关机构和人员进行处罚。一旦发现互联网平台未经注册、以智能投顾等名义擅自开展公募证券投资基金销售活动的,将依法予以查处。” 这是去年8月证监会的表态。而今年4月,一则《山西证监局称智能投顾售基金违规》 的新闻,更是直接吓坏了一大批正在智能投顾道路上奋斗的宝宝,因为这篇文章不但指出目前智能投顾涉嫌无牌照基金代销这一痛点,更是直接点了两家智能投顾企业的名——理财魔方和拿铁财经。

直到如今,包括理财魔方在内的很多智能投顾仍然没有基金代销牌照,他们多数都是通过和有基金代销牌照公司合作的形式开展业务。虽然各家公司都在强调自己已经实现了合规,但是不得不说,这种处于灰色地带的行事方法,仍然面临诸多不确定性。

  3产品风险

在今年上半年,智能投顾的产品风险集中表现在海外资产配置方面。由于去年人民币出现贬值,因此从去年开始,不少的智能投顾都将资产配置重心放到了海外(还有不少的智能投顾只做海外资产配置)。然而,这种本身并不科学的资产配置方式却在今年上半年导致了不小的产品风险。

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