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全球贸易“危”“机”并存

2017-08-14 03:17:50   中国青年网

上周,世界贸易组织(WTO)报告预计全球贸易将继续增长。这对深受增长问题困扰的全球贸易来说,无疑是个好消息。不过,一些国家频频以“贸易逆差”为借口制造贸易摩擦争端,这种保护主义的行径势必威胁全球贸易增长前景。

7日,WTO发布最新全球贸易景气指数报告,预计今年三季度全球贸易景气指数达102.6,为6年来最高值,显示全球贸易正持续复苏。分析认为,今年上半年以来全球经济逐渐复苏,包括航空货物运输、出口订单以及集装箱吞吐量等数据增长强劲,成为带动全球贸易增长的主要动力。一些新兴市场国家贸易状况好转,也是全球贸易继续增长的重要动力来源。

9日,巴西全国外贸会议公布数据显示,今年1月份到7月份,巴西对外出口贸易总额同比增长18.7%。今年全年巴西外贸顺差预计将达632亿美元,比去年增长32.6%。分析认为,得益于持续降息的宽松货币政策和全球周期性回暖,巴西贸易增长较快有助于推动巴西经济尽快摆脱困境。

贸易增长前景虽然看好,但保护主义的威胁依然存在。最大的问题还是出在美国身上。特朗普政府上台至今,各项政策推进不及预期,移民法案、医改法案先后在国会遇挫,减税和基建计划也是“只闻楼梯响,不见人下来”。8月初,在国会的强大压力下,特朗普更是签下了限制自身外交权限的对俄制裁法案。在这种情况下,特朗普政府极有可能通过对外展示强硬来“扳回一局”,同时宣示所谓“美国优先”的贸易政策决心。从这一点来看,美国近期与其主要贸易伙伴国的贸易摩擦可能增加,这对刚刚好转的全球贸易来说并不是个好消息。

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