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肉蛋价格走低传导至产业链 豆粕库存走高或影响企业开工率

2017-05-25 09:57:49   中国经济网

豆粕库存走高

海关数据显示,4月份我国大豆进口802万吨,前4个月累计进口量为2754万吨,去年同期累积进口量则为2334万吨。

由于近年国际大豆大丰收,进口量大增,大豆、油脂、豆粕的供应链相对宽松,而对应的是,下游的需求不振,“吃不下这么多货,供需出现错差,现在来看,当下豆粕的库存压力极大,卓创监测的数据,上周国内库存豆粕为82.23万吨,环比增长3.28万吨。而未来两个月,大豆的原材料供应仍是充足、确定的。在养殖端需求不旺、大豆供应不减的双重作用之下,豆粕的库存压力很大,这种压力极有可能传导至豆油压榨企业,倒逼企业缩减开工率或将库存转移至下游。目前来看,油厂是亏损的。大型的豆油压榨企业、饲料企业可以通过套期保值来对冲亏损。”王文深解释。

不过,王文深认为,豆粕有刚需的属性,而且,容易受到美国大豆的影响,“当下正是美豆的种植期,如果美豆产区有降水等天气原因,是否会影响种植进度等,都会在下一周的报告中反馈出来,如果出现影响,美豆的价格上涨,也会带动国内豆粕的行情。不过,在今天的走势中,豆粕期货出现了国内今年的最低点。”

(责编:贾兴鹏、杨曦)

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